Global FX Market Summary: Fed Dovish Pivot, USD Softness & AI Tech Rally Resurgence 24 November 2025

Fed’s dovish pivot boosts rate-cut bets, lifting equities and gold, pressuring USD; EUR/USD steady; AI stocks rally despite valuation worries.

The Federal Reserve’s Dovish Pivot

The overwhelming fundamental driver in the current market is the rising probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, now widely expected as ahead as December. This shift is primarily fueled by recent dovish remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, who both cited a perceived “fragileness in the job market” as a rationale for further monetary easing. Consequently, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have surged to around 80%, a sharp increase from levels viewn just one week prior. This anticipation of lower US borrowing costs is exerting significant influence across asset classes, causing US Treasury yields to fall, which in turn supports Gold (XAU/USD) in its push toward the $4,100 level, and boosts US equities, as evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) adding 200 points in recovery.

The EUR/USD and US Dollar Undercurrent

The EUR/USD pair is currently advancing modestly, trading around 1.1525, on the back of a consolidating US Dollar that has been weighed down by the increased rate-cut speculation. However, this upside momentum is being moderated by cautious sentiment stemming from the Eurozone. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel noted that while the current Euro level is not a concern, food inflation “remains stubborn,” and the European Central Bank (ECB) must monitor strong price increases in services, suggesting no immediate shift in the ECB’s “appropriate” current policy stance. This mixed fundamental backdrop keeps the currency pair confined, with traders now keenly awaiting crucial US economic releases scheduled for the week, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales, for the next major directional move.

Continuation of the AI-Fueled Tech Rally

Despite underlying financial anxieties, the AI-powered technology trade is back on the front burner and remains a critical engine for the broader equity market’s recent recovery. Following a brief defensive pullback, the sector is regaining ground, led by its key players. For instance, chip supplier Nvidia (NVDA) is back on the rise, gaining approximately 2.25% to climb above $180 per share. This resilience comes even as investors grapple with growing concerns—specifically, fears that the high demand for AI-powering microchips is not sustainably translating into front-end revenue and that certain “circular lending strategies” could be over-inflating valuations within the tech giant ecosystem. Nonetheless, for the time being, the strong momentum of the AI trade is prevailing over these cautionary funding concerns.

Top upcoming economic events:

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

The begin of the week focuses heavily on the US and Eurozone economies.

• Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 07:00:00 (EUR): This is a key measure of the overall health of the Eurozone economy. The quarterly change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest gauge of economic activity and is used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to inform its monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected reading indicates economic resilience, while a fragileer one could signal an economic sluggishdown.
• Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 13:30:00 (USD): This is a HIGH impact inflation report from the US, tracking the change in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. Because producer prices can often be passed on to consumers, this “core” measure is viewn as a leading indicator of future consumer inflation. The Federal Reserve watches this closely for signs of persistent inflation pressures.
• Retail Sales Control Group | 13:30:00 (USD): Another HIGH impact US event, this subset of the Retail Sales report is used directly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to compute the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) portion of GDP. As consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the US economy, this is a critical, timely measure of the economy’s growth momentum and consumer confidence.
• Consumer Confidence | 15:00:00 (USD): This report measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding the current and future state of the economy. High confidence often leads to increased consumer spending, which drives economic growth. As such, a significant change in this sentiment index can influence market expectations for future economic performance and Fed policy.
• Fed’s Daly speech | 19:50:00 (USD): Speeches by Federal Reserve officials, especially voting members, are critical for gaining insight into the Fed’s current economic outlook and the future path of US monetary policy (e.g., interest rates and quantitative easing). Markets will scrutinize the comments for clues on inflation, employment, and any potential shifts in policy stance.

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Mid-week features major central bank action and significant international data.

• Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 00:30:00 (AUD): This HIGH impact event is Australia’s primary measure of inflation, tracking the change in the price of excellents and services purchased by consumers. It is the central piece of data used by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to make decisions on interest rates, making it a major driver for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Review, and Press Conference | 01:00:00 – 02:00:00 (NZD): This is a block of HIGH impact events where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its key interest rate and releases its updated economic forecasts and policy outlook. The decision, the language in the review, and the Governor’s comments in the press conference can cause significant volatility for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
• Durable excellents Orders ex Transportation | 13:30:00 (USD): This US report measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting excellents. Excluding the highly volatile transportation sector (like large aircraft orders), this figure provides a clearer picture of underlying business investment and manufacturing health, making it an significant indicator of future industrial production.
• Initial Jobless Claims | 13:30:00 (USD): A weekly report on the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is a timely and closely watched gauge of the labor market’s health. A sudden jump suggests a fragileening job market, while a decline indicates improvement, both of which inform the Fed’s assessment of employment targets.
• ECB’s President Lagarde speech | 17:00:00 (EUR): As the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde’s speeches carry HIGH Her remarks often detail the ECB’s assessment of the Eurozone’s economic risks, inflation outlook, and any potential future changes to its monetary policy, directly impacting the Euro (EUR) and European bond markets.

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