Tom Lee Softens $250K BTC Call, Now Sees Only a ‘Maybe’ for New Highs

Why Is Tom Lee Backing Away From His $250K BTC Prediction?

BitMine chair Tom Lee has walked back one of the most aggressively bullish BTC targets of the year, softening his long-standing call for a $250,000 BTC price by year-end. Speaking on CNBC, Lee said he still expects BTC to finish above $100,000 but is no longer confident about a parabolic surge.

“I think it’s still very likely that BTC is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” Lee said. But the emphasis on “maybe” marks a noticeable shift from his earlier tone. Throughout ahead 2024 and into October, Lee repeatedly asserted that $250,000 was achievable.

His revised stance comes as BTC struggles to recover from a steep market drawdown. BTC is trading around $90,801 and is down roughly 1.85% over the past 12 months. October’s all-time high of $125,100 now feels distant amid continued tradeing pressure, macro-induced volatility and capital outflows across crypto markets.

Lee’s earlier prediction placed him among the most optimistic voices in the industry. Others, including , warned at the time that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for BTC to reach those levels.

Investor Takeaway

Why Lee Still Believes BTC Could Surprise Traders

Despite stepping back from the $250,000 target, Lee maintains that BTC often posts its strongest gains within remarkably short windows. He highlighted a pattern widely observed by investors: BTC historically generates the bulk of its annual upside during just 10 trading days each year.

This concept gained traction later than shared similar analysis earlier in 2024, noting that missing BTC’s top 10 days often means missing nahead all of its returns. The trend has held for more than a decade. In 2024 alone, the best 10 trading days delivered a combined gain of 52%, while the remaining 355 days produced an average return of -15%.

Lee believes this asymmetric behavior means traders should not assume the year is finished. “I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” he said, pointing to the remaining 35 days of 2025.

BTC recently reclaimed $90,000 later than spending six days below that level, a small sign of stabilization later than a period defined by forced tradeing and liquidations. The downturn was triggered by a $19 billion market-wide wipeout following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% .

Investor Takeaway

Does Seasonality Still Matter for BTC?

Historically, November has been BTC’s strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass. But this year, seasonality has not yet delivered the expected lift. Traders who hoped for a repeat of past November rallies instead faced a combination of deleveraging, geopolitical uncertainty and reduced liquidity across .

Still, some analysts argue the worst may be behind BTC. Economist Timothy Peterson said this week that BTC’s bottom either already occurred or will form before the end of the week. If that holds true, Lee’s prediction of a year-end recovery may still be within reach, even if it falls short of $125,000 or $250,000.

How Accurate Have Tom Lee’s BTC Predictions Been?

Lee’s track record is mixed. Some of his long-term calls proved accurate, while others took years longer than expected—or never materialized within the projected timeframe.

• January 2018: Lee predicted BTC could reach $125,000 by 2022. BTC eventually hit that level, but only in October 2025.
• July 2017: He projected a base-case scenario of $20,000 by 2022 and a bullish case of $55,000. BTC reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021.

Lee’s optimistic price targets often gain media attention but sometimes underestimate the impact of external shocks—from regulation to leverage unwinds to broader macro cycles.