Arthur Hayes Says Monad Could Vanish as Token Pumps 40%

Why Hayes Thinks Monad Is Headed for Trouble

Arthur Hayes is raising alarms over Monad, warning that the newly launched layer-1 blockchain could collapse as much as 99% in the months ahead. Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX CEO called Monad “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone places retail purchaviewrs at a diupsetvantage.

FDV — or Fully Diluted Value — measures what a project would be worth if all tokens were already circulating. Hayes said large gaps between FDV and circulating supply create a familiar pattern: an ahead price pop followed by heavy tradeing once insider allocations unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” he said, adding that initial hype does not translate into long-term utility.

Monad raised $225 million from Paradigm last year, and the network went live on Monday alongside an airdrop of its MON token. MON has climbed since launch, but Hayes said short-term trading bursts do not change the broader track record of most new layer-1 networks. He said only a small group of base-layer protocols is likely to survive future cycles, naming BTC, Ether, Solana and Zcash among the few he expects to endure.

Cointelegraph contacted Monad for comment but did not receive a response before publication.

Investor Takeaway

Hayes Remains Bullish on the largeger Picture

While he delivered a bleak outlook for Monad, Hayes said the broader into the stronger part of the cycle. He tied his view directly to renewed monetary expansion rather than protocol-level catalysts.

“I think that we are at the end of the beginning of this cycle and the massive amounts of crazy bull money printing is ahead of us,” he said. Hayes argued that governments, especially the United States, are preparing for more liquidity injections as economic growth softens and political campaigns heat up.

He dismissed the popular four-year BTC cycle, saying it has little connection to halvings. Instead, he described past surges as reactions to global credit expansion led by the US and China. When liquidity dries up, he said, BTC is the first asset to react, calling it the “last free-market smoke alarm” for the financial system.

Why Hayes Thinks Privacy Tech Will Lead the Next Narrative

Looking ahead, Hayes said privacy technologies will attract more attention across crypto, pointing to zero-knowledge systems and privacy coins as likely beneficiaries. He expects institutions to keep building around ETH due to its role in finance, while retail traders may gravitate toward assets that offer data protection.

His comments align with his own portfolio moves. Earlier this month, Hayes said Zcash is now the second-largest holding in his family office, Maelstrom, behind only BTC. He also included Zcash in the shortlist of assets he thinks will still matter later than the next market shakeout.

Investor Takeaway

Where Monad Fits in the Current Layer-1 Landscape

Monad enters a crowded field at a time when most new chains struggle to keep users beyond launch week. Many networks lean on incentives, large airdrops or a small float to spark activity, but most fail to retain traction once token unlocks and competition set in.

Hayes’ warning echoes a broader concern across analysts, traders and developers: supply schedules matter more than ever. Even strong engineering talent and large VC rounds do not shield a network from while future unlocks weigh on sentiment.

Monad’s supporters say its parallelized execution engine offers quicker performance than existing chains. MON’s price is up since launch, but often mislead retail traders. Without real usage and sustained fee generation, he said, new chains typically revert to their pre-hype valuations once speculation cools.

Whether Monad lands closer to past short-lived L1 experiments or manages to carve out activity remains unclear, but Hayes’ warning adds a sharper edge to market conversations around token design and unlock schedules.