Strategy Stock Gets a 60% Target Cut — Still Thinks BTC Can Overtake Gold

Why Did Cantor Reduce Its Target on Strategy?

Cantor Fitzgerald has sharply reduced its 12-month price target on Michael Saylor’s BTC-focused company, Strategy, while keeping a bullish stance on BTC’s longer-term outlook. According to the Financial Times, the firm cut its target by 60% — down to $229 from $560 — reflecting the stock’s fragile performance relative to prior expectations.

Despite the drop, Cantor kept its “purchase” rating. The firm said widespread worries about forced liquidation are overstated and do not reflect the company’s current balance-sheet position. Strategy’s stock has struggled this year, falling 27% over the past month and 35% year-to-date, with shares trading near $186 at the time of writing.

Cantor is the ninth-largest shareholder in the company, giving its updated assessment added weight in the market. The firm’s report arrives as Strategy remains one of the most visible public-market proxies for BTC exposure.

Investor Takeaway

Are Forced Liquidation Risks Real?

Cantor’s analysts said Strategy has “enough cash” to cover dividend obligations for 21 months and can raise additional funds through equity facilities if needed. They added: “Absent a 90% pullback from current BTC levels, This Fear is Not Warranted.”

The market narrative has focused on whether Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation could force the company into a trade-off if prices drop sharply. Cantor pushed back on that scenario, arguing that Strategy’s liquidity options — including equity issuance — reduce the likelihood of forced tradeing.

The firm also noted that Strategy’s recent share performance has fallen far below earlier projections, making the revised target more realistic based on current conditions rather than assumptions about severe BTC stress events.

What About MSCI’s Threshold on Digital Asset Holdings?

Another pressure point for Strategy is the MSCI Index’s proposed rule to remove companies whose exceed 50% of total assets. Strategy heavily exceeds that threshold due to its reserve strategy. Cantor acknowledged that the risk of index exclusion could create “forced tradeing of MSTR,” calling that concern “somewhat warranted,” but limited to near-term investor flows rather than a threat to the company’s solvency.

If enacted, such a rule would hit Strategy’s stock mechanically: index funds would have to trade shares, increasing supply regardless of company fundamentals. That would not affect Strategy’s ability to hold BTC or continue its existing treasury approach, but it could add volatility around rebalancing periods.

Investor Takeaway

How Does BTC’s Outlook Tie Into the Revised Target?

Cantor continues to project long-run strength for BTC despite the correction. It called the recent pullback “healthy” and reiterated its view that BTC is moving closer to overtaking gold’s market capitalization. The firm wrote: “We continue to believe that we are not far away from cap.”

As of now, BTC represents just 6.1% of gold’s market size. Cantor calculated that BTC would need to reach $1,577,860 to surpass gold at today’s valuations. Other market commentators share similar long-range expectations; analyst Joe Burnett recently projected that BTC could exceed $1.8 million by 2035.

Still, BTC would need to increase roughly sixteen-fold from current levels to match gold — a gap that remains substantial even during periods of strong momentum. Over the past year, gold has risen 58%, outperforming BTC, which is down 1.5% year-to-date, according to TradingView.

What Comes Next for Strategy’s Stock?

The well below both Cantor’s previous and revised targets. While Strategy’s performance is tightly linked to BTC’s trajectory, external factors such as index rules, equity-raising conditions and broader market risk may continue to influence the share price.

Cantor’s blended view — lower valuation target but a reiteration of its bullish stance — suggests that the firm views Strategy’s model as intact, even if short-term pressures justify a more conservative outlook. The company’s ability to avoid forced sales, maintain liquidity flexibility and stay aligned with its remains central to the investment case.