BTC Tests Key April Support While Macro and On-Chain Indicators Split

BTC is at a key 0.382 which means it might test the April lows again if it breaks through. However, macro and on-chain signals are not in agreement, leaving the market vulnerable but poised for possible stabilisation. 

Daan Crypto Trades, a crypto trader, out this level in a recent analysis, saying, “It’s also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure.”

The asset’s position suggests traders are becoming more cautious amid poor weekend liquidity, which has led to short-term drops below key levels.

Weekend Leverage Shakeout

Analyst Bull Theory called it a “classic leverage liquidation event” when fell below a key support level over the weekend. This happened during sparse trading hours, wiping out both long and short positions before a partial rebound. 

This move shows how prices may change rapidly in crypto markets with minimal liquidity. Now, the focus is on upcoming macroeconomic events that could affect the market. With volumes down in December and inflows sluggishing down, there isn’t much room for growth in the near future.

The Fed Meeting is Coming up

People are looking forward to this week’s . Traders expect a rate cut, but they also want Chair Jerome Powell to be careful, since he has said data should drive decisions rather than automatic easing. Markus Thielen of 10x Research that the market might become more hawkish. 

He pointed out that ETF inflows are falling and volumes are down, which makes it harder for bulls to participate. At the identical time, volatility compression is compressing risks.

Thielen wrote in a research note, “Bulls will point to the Treasury General Account rebuild, the end of Quantitative Tightening, and looming rate cuts as a liquidity windfall for .” Still, he warned that these tailwinds are “irrelevant if the underlying message lacks conviction and the market structure fails to support a sustained move.”

On-Chain Signals Provide a Counterpoint

Despite the economic headwinds, on-chain “liveliness”—a measure of the number of coins being traded vs. those held by age—rises while prices are flat. This suggests that dormant coins are becoming active at levels not viewn in years and that long-term holders are becoming active again. 

This difference usually happens before bull phases, when older coins move with new demand and confidence.

Last week, backed up this perspective by saying that “tradeer exhaustion” following extensive deleveraging and short-term holder surrender “has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce.”

The Focus is on Economic Data

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research said that U.S. jobs and inflation reports could affect the outcomes. Strong easing signals could lead to a recovery across assets, fuelled by liquidity. If the price drops below existing supports, it might cause further long-term damage.

However, on-chain resilience implies that bulls can hold this level. Traders are still divided, evaluating the Fed’s words against the blockchain’s momentum in a tense battle near the $92,000 threshold.