Gemini Launches Prediction Markets Nationwide later than CFTC Approval
Gemini, the cryptocurrency platform founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has its prediction markets platform across all 50 U.S. states following regulatory approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The platform, branded Gemini Predictions, allows users to trade event contracts—binary “yes/no” bets on outcomes ranging from financial and economic indicators to political and sports events. These contracts settle based on whether an event occurs, with successful predictions paying out a fixed amount.
This launch marks the culmination of a five-year licensing process that began in 2020, during which Gemini’s affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, secured a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC. This license grants the legal authority to operate regulated event markets within the United States, placing Gemini among a select group of companies permitted to offer federally overviewn prediction markets.
Gemini Predictions is now available nationwide on both the iOS app and web platform, with trading fees waived for a limited introductory period. Users with existing fiat balances on Gemini can immediately participate, with near-instant execution across mobile and desktop platforms.
The launch reflects Gemini’s broader strategy to introduce regulated financial products to the U.S. market. The company has indicated potential future expansions into other derivatives such as crypto futures, options, and perpetual swaps.
Analysts note that while some critics liken prediction markets to gambling, proponents argue that these regulated contracts provide valuable probability signals around key economic and social outcomes. Gemini’s nationwide rollout could thus accelerate mainstream adoption of event trading in the U.S.
Crypto Firms Race to Expand Regulated Prediction Markets
Leading crypto companies are accelerating their push into prediction markets, blending trading with real‑world forecasting. in partnership with ERShares and Signal Markets, aiming to provide users with insights on macroeconomic trends, corporate outcomes, and market probabilities. The platform combines data analytics with event-based trading, marking a step beyond conventional crypto platform services.
Similarly, through a partnership with Kalshi, leveraging the latter’s CFTC-regulated infrastructure. The move will allow users to trade event contracts on elections, economic indicators, sports, and technology outcomes, bridging crypto and traditional financial markets.
Meanwhile, to clear fully collateralized swaps, opening the door for its own prediction markets and enabling third-party platforms to integrate with its clearing system. Together, these developments highlight a growing trend among U.S.-based crypto firms to mainstream event-based trading under regulatory oversight, offering users new tools for risk assessment and market insights.
