BTC Bounces Back Above $87K, but Analysts Warn the Market Is Still Fragile
Did Tuesday’s Rebound Change the Market Tone?
Crypto markets steadied in ahead U.S. trading Tuesday later than a sharp trade-off the day before, with BTC bouncing about 3% to trade above $87,000. Ether lagged with a 1.4% gain, while BNB, XRP and SUI outperformed, rising between 3% and 6%. Crypto-linked equities joined the recovery as Strategy (MSTR), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL) moved 3%–9% higher.
The stabilization came as U.S. equities slipped, breaking the usual correlation. The S&P dropped 0.3%, placing crypto temporarily ahead of broader risk assets despite Monday’s market turmoil.
Macroeconomic data complicated the backdrop. November’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, while job creation slightly exceeded forecasts. Rate-cut expectations for January barely moved, leaving traders unsure how the data fits into the Federal Reserve’s near-term path.
Investor Takeaway
Is the Bounce Just a Pause in a Larger Pullback?
Not everyone viewed the rebound as a sign of strength. identicalr Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, called ahead December recovery a “corrective high,” arguing the next move could push BTC to fresh lows below its November trough near $80,000.
He described current conditions as “fragile,” pointing to roughly $750 million in long liquidations over the past two days, including $250 futures. “Traders are either stepping aside ahead of the data or being forced out, reinforcing downside momentum,” Hasn said. Without a clear macro catalyst, he warned that BTC could be pulled into “a deeper flush.”
David Hernandez of 21Shares framed the moment as a clash between delayed monetary easing and BTC’s long-term profile. “Immediate tradeing pressure may emerge as traders re-evaluate the risk landscape,” he said, adding that tighter conditions could still create opportunities for longer-term purchaviewrs: “Where the Fed struggles to tame inflation without crashing the economy, becomes an essential asset.”
What’s Happening Inside the Order Book?
Order-book data showed a tense standoff as BTC approached the Wall Street open. later than dipping to $85,000 on Monday, traders focused on whether fresh liquidity would assist stabilize price or force a deeper sweep of support zones. BTC traded around $87,374 as purchaviewrs and tradeers pushed against nearby levels.
“Waking up to a battle in the $BTC order book…,” trading group Material Indicators wrote on X, showing Binance data with bids clustering around $85,000 and heavy asks stacked above $87,000. The group called both liquidity concentrations “guardrails ahead of today’s economic data.”
The 100-week simple moving average — now at $84,646 — acted as a key reference point, with traders watching to view whether the market could avoid another push into that zone.
Labor-market signals offered little clarity. Unemployment rose, but job creation beat estimates, creating a mixed backdrop for risk assets. The Kobeissi Letter summed up the reaction with a straightforward assessment: “The labor market is still fragileening.”
Stocks attempted a mild recovery at the open, but crypto traders remained focused on Thursday’s print as the week’s main catalyst.
Investor Takeaway
Where Do Traders view BTC Heading Next?
Opinion remained split as BTC hovered inside a narrow liquidity pocket. Crypto Tony described the rebound as “sub par,” adding that a proper reaction may only arrive if BTC dips toward $84,000. Trader Kay said BTC/USD was entering its “final leg down” from the October all-time high, attributing recent trade-offs to diverse cohorts: OG holders from $126K to $100K, ETFs from $100K to $85K, and potentially retail next.
“Now, the next dump will be due to retail tradeing and that’s when a rally begins,” Kay wrote. He expects a sweep of the April lows before a move above $100K in ahead 2026.
Others focused on the upside if BTC clears nearby asks. Commentator exitpump highlighted “huge” bid liquidity toward $80,000 but also a path toward $95,000 in the event of a resistance break.
The market now enters the CPI window with tensions visible on both sides of the order book — purchaviewrs defending $85K and tradeers loading above $87K. With volatility compressing and macro data sending conflicting signals, short-term moves may hinge less on momentum and more on whichever side of the liquidity cluster gives way first.
