What 2026 May Bring For Markets And Brokers

The past few years have forced markets to operate without a stable baseline. The post-pandemic surge in liquidity gave way to the steepest tightening cycle in decades, and then to a stop-begin recalibration as inflation cooled unevenly and growth refused to break cleanly in either direction. Investors and traders have been navigating a world where geopolitics, supply chains, fiscal expansion, and technology shocks have all competed with central banks for control of the narrative.

By 2025, the simple phase of the cycle had largely ended. Equities stayed resilient, but leadership became more conditional on earnings delivery and balance sheet durability. At the identical time, debt burdens and policy uncertainty assisted re-legitimise real assets as strategic hedges, while the AI boom created both genuine productivity potential and a constant valuation stress test with each reporting season.

Looking toward 2026, the expectations are shifting from “what will the Fed do?” to “what will actually work?” Markets are likely to remain constructive, but less forgiving: returns may still be there, yet they could come with more dispersion across sectors, more sensitivity to policy repricing, and more volatility around crowded themes such as AI, mega-cap concentration, and secure-haven demand.

To explore what that means in practice, this feature brings together perspectives from market analysts, trading technology executives, and industry veterans. Central to the outlook are insights from:

• Joshua Mahony, Chief Market Analyst of Rostro Group’s retail brokerage brand , on macro drivers, currencies, and commodities;
• Elina Pedersen, CEO of , on global markets and the evolving realities of the trading industry; and
• Drew Niv, CEO of , on how broker and prop firm models are adapting to tighter conditions.

Their views are complemented by voices from crypto, regulation, and institutional finance, including Coinbase UK CEO Keith Grose, ThetaRay COO Moshe Siman-Tov, Uplinq co-founder Pat Reily, and veteran FX trader Vince Stanzione.

Rates, The Dollar, And Precious Metals Back In Focus

believes monetary policy will once again dominate market behaviour in 2026, particularly through its impact on the dollar and bond markets.

“2026 will view traders refocus on the dollar once again, with the new Fed Chair likely to push for a fresh bout of easing in a bid to lift economic growth under Donald Trump. One of the core drivers of price action within the FX space involves the respective moves within bond markets, and thus the dollar could get hit if we view a shift in pricing for additional cuts beyond the three currently priced by markets. Talk of the Fed’s ‘terminal rate’ will undoubtedly become increasingly prominent as we weigh up exactly where the FOMC opt to halt their easing process. Given the repeated votes for a 50bp cut from Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran, it is more than likely that his pick for the Chair will similarly push for a fresh bout of monetary easing in H2 2026.”

He also views precious metals remaining structurally supported later than an exceptional 2025.

“2025 has been an incredibly profitable one for holders of precious metals, with ending up as two of the best-performing assets later than a particularly strong second half of the year. The decision on when to take your profits and run will always remain one of the more hard elements of investing, but some of the core drivers behind this strength look unlikely to shift anytime soon. AI valuation concerns continue to drive haven demand. The ever-rising wall of debt faced across the globe will continue to rise, with currency devaluation and fiscal stability concerns likely to drive demand for non-fiat assets.”

Mahony argues that geopolitics has further reinforced gold’s appeal.

“Meanwhile, the European decision to freeze Russian assets will undoubtedly ensure we view plenty of demand for untraceable non-fiat investments such as gold. JP Morgan predicts a $5,000 year-end target for 2026, and while it is hard to pin an exact number on any market, another 20% gain next year viewms very plausible given the 60% and 27% rise over the past two years. Just expect volatility, and be aware that any sharp tradeoff in equities will invariably view precious metals suffer a similar fate as has been the case for any previous market tradeoffs.”

Takeaway: Mahony’s outlook frames 2026 as a year where easing expectations, bond repricing and geopolitical risk reinforce demand for real assets, even as higher volatility becomes part of the cost of holding them.

Equities, AI Discipline, And A Less Forgiving Market

, expects equities to extend gains in 2026, but only for companies that can deliver measurable results.

“Markets enter 2026 with momentum, but the tone has changed. This is no longer a broad rally driven by valuation expansion. Equities should still move higher, likely delivering low to mid-teen returns globally. Results will depend much more on earnings delivery than sentiment.”

She argues that artificial intelligence remains central to market leadership, but the tolerance for unfocused spending is fading.

“AI remains the main force shaping market leadership. The investment cycle continues, but it is becoming more selective. Investors are rewarding companies that turn AI investment into real productivity and revenue, while penalising those that simply spend. This is assisting leadership broaden beyond pure technology into sectors such as utilities, health care, and financials, particularly where demand is linked to power usage, infrastructure and efficiency gains.”

Pedersen also points to a more balanced global opportunity set.

“The US remains the core market, supported by strong corporate profitability and deep capital markets. That said, opportunities outside the US are improving. Europe is emerging from several years of fragile growth, assisted by rate cuts and fiscal investment. China, especially its technology sector, offers asymmetric potential. Valuations remain low, liquidity is improving, and earnings are recovering, despite ongoing geopolitical risk.”

Takeaway: Pedersen views 2026 as a stock picker’s market, where AI remains a powerful theme but success depends on execution, profitability, and discipline rather than spending alone.

Trading Models, Crypto Infrastructure, And Regulation Catch Up

believes the contraction in the prop trading sector is setting the stage for a more sustainable phase. “Prop firms will evolve and mature as the sector has shrunk from the 2024 peak due to unsustainable business models.  This will mean more sustainable payout rules, and continued migration to prop as a lead source for brokers, not a standalone business.”

He also views brokers increasingly following prop firms by offering multiple platforms, while artificial intelligence lowers the barrier to strategy creation.  “AI will come in strong into the CFD sector, enabling more people to easily create EAs, easily port them from platform to platform, assisting [more brokers do what prop firms have done successfully], but most significantly, create more complex multimedia layered systems that aren’t one-dimensional like EAs and now don’t require a dedicated coding team.”

Beyond brokerage, structural shifts are accelerating across financial markets. Coinbase UK CEO Keith Grose argues that market infrastructure itself is changing. “The clearest signal about where we’re heading in 2026 is that the next generation of the internet is being built on-chain. Markets are becoming programmable, platforms are being redesigned around fairness and liquidity, and . And at the frontier, AI systems are beginning to rely on blockchains for identity, trust, and settlement – a shift that will define the next decade of the cryptoeconomy.”

In Europe, regulation is becoming a forcing function for AI adoption. ThetaRay COO Moshe Siman-Tov expects 2026 to be decisive. “Europe in 2026 will resemble the period leading up to Y2K, with institutions racing to modernize foundational AML systems ahead of a hard regulatory deadline. While the unified AML rulebook is already in place, its most demanding requirements come into force in 2027, and traditional rules-based approaches will not scale to meet them.”

On the macro-financial side, Uplinq co-founder Pat Reily expects lower rates to reshape credit markets and expose fragileer AI narratives. “The by 1.75% by the end of 2026… Slapping a little AI on something may fool some of the venture capital and broader community, but only for a little while.”

Finally, veteran FX trader Vince Stanzione remains constructive on metals amid all the change. “The gold and silver bull market, even with pullbacks, remains intact.”

Takeaway: Across trading, crypto, and regulation, 2026 appears set to reward firms and investors who invest ahead in robust infrastructure, credible AI, and compliance-ready systems—while exposing fragile models built for a very diverse market regime.