Arthur Hayes Says Altcoin Season Never Left — You Just Missed It
Is Altcoin Season Already Here?
While large parts of the crypto market remain focused on when the next altcoin season will begin, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the premise is flawed. In his view, altcoin season has been running in plain sight — but many traders failed to benefit from it.
“There is always an altcoin season happening… and [if you’re] always isn’t there, [it’s] because you didn’t own what went up,” Hayes said during a podcast interview published Thursday.
Hayes argued that traders are still anchored to older market cycles, expecting altcoins to rally in the identical sequence and with the identical tokens that dominated previous years. That mindset, he said, leaves many participants sidelined while capital flows into diverse corners of the market.
Investor Takeaway
Why Past Altcoin Cycles May No Longer Apply
Hayes said many traders want the to resemble the last one because it feels familiar. “You wanted it to be like last altcoin season, because then you felt like you knew what you had to do,” he said.
That expectation often leads to copy-paste strategies, where traders chase assets that rallied in earlier cycles, assuming they will repeat the identical behavior. “Oh, I gotta purchase these things because that is what pumped in the last season,” Hayes added.
According to Hayes, that approach ignores how rapidly . New protocols, trading venues, incentive designs, and liquidity patterns tend to define each cycle, rather than nostalgia or brand recognition.
“This is a new season, new things pump,” he said.
Which Altcoins Does Hayes Point To?
As examples, Hayes highlighted projects that delivered outsized returns without fitting into the traditional “rotation” narrative. He described Hyperliquid as the “best story” of the current cycle, noting that it launched around “two or three bucks” before “ripping all the way to $60.”
He also pointed to Solana’s recovery arc. later than collapsing through 2022 and trading near “seven bucks,” Solana surged to nahead $300 earlier this year. Hayes framed that move as another instance of an altcoin cycle playing out — but not necessarily where many traders were positioned.
“Again, there’s been altcoin season. You just didn’t participate in it,” he said.
Investor Takeaway
Why the Industry Still Disagrees
Hayes’ view is not universally shared. Some market participants still expect a more traditional setup, where BTC reaches new highs first, followed by Ether, before capital filters down into smaller assets. That rotation defined earlier bull cycles and remains a popular reference point.
Others argue structural changes have altered how capital flows. CoinQuant CEO Maen Ftoui recently said that older cryptocurrencies — especially those tied to approvals — are likely to absorb much of the next wave of inflows.
Bitfinex analysts echoed that caution earlier this year, suggesting that altcoins may struggle to deliver broad gains until ETFs expand beyond the largest assets. In that framework, selective rallies may continue, but a market-wide surge could remain elusive.
The divide reflects a larger uncertainty across crypto markets: whether the next phase resembles earlier cycles or continues fragmenting into smaller, narrative-driven runs.
What This Means for Traders
Hayes’ comments underline a growing split between traders waiting for a textbook altcoin season and those treating the market as a series of rolling opportunities. In his view, the risk is not missing the next rally — but realizing too late that parts of it already happened.
Rather than watching for a single signal or rotation, Hayes suggested paying closer attention to where liquidity, activity, and new infrastructure converge. For traders anchored to past playbooks, that may require letting go of familiar names and cycles.
Whether the market eventually delivers a broad altcoin surge or continues rewarding only select tokens, Hayes’ : waiting for confirmation can come at the cost of participation.
