Year of Change: 2025 Market Review by Octa Broker

Introduction: a year defined by volatility and transition

The global financial landscape of 2025 was shaped by extreme volatility, geopolitical tension, and deep structural uncertainty. While a full-scale crisis was narrowly avoided, the year was marked by profound capital reallocation and shifting investor behaviour, forcing markets to adapt under sustained pressure.

Equity markets told a paradoxical story. Major global indices pushed to fresh all-time highs, driven largely by continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and mega-cap technology leaders. NVIDIA and its peers reached valuations exceeding the combined GDP of entire continents. Yet beneath these record highs, investor anxiety remained elevated.

Concerns surrounding sovereign debt sustainability in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Japan intensified, alongside fears of asset valuation bubbles, sticky inflation, and rising political polarisation. In response, capital flowed simultaneously into risk assets and traditional secure havens—an unusual combination that defined the year’s underlying tension.

The key takeaways from 2025

• Best-performing major currency: Swiss franc (CHF)
• Best-performing currency (top 20): Russian rouble
• Best-performing commodity: Silver
• Worst-performing major currency: U.S. dollar (USD)
• Worst-performing currency (top 20): Turkish lira
• Worst-performing commodity: Sugar
• Worst-performing top-5 cryptocurrency: Dogecoin

The three defining market stories of 2025

1. The U.S. dollar loses its secure-haven crown

Historically, global uncertainty has driven investors toward the U.S. dollar. In 2025, however, the United States itself became a primary source of instability.

Aggressive trade protectionism under the Trump administration reignited global trade tensions, while fiscal uncertainty escalated following the passage of the One large lovely Bill Act, which added trillions to the national debt. Structural deficits became entrenched, raising doubts about long-term fiscal sustainability.

As confidence eroded, foreign investors aggressively hedged dollar exposure through FX swaps, options, and forwards. At its fragileest point, the dollar fell more than 10% during the year and is on track to finish 2025 as the worst-performing major currency.

In contrast, the Swiss franc surged over 14% against the dollar, benefiting from Switzerland’s neutrality, disciplined fiscal framework, and reputation as a financial secure haven.

Top 20 currencies performance in 2025 (y-t-d, as of Dec. 21, 2025)

2. Precious metals dominate amid de-dollarisation

Geopolitical instability extended far beyond U.S. policy. Prolonged conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, rising tensions in Southeast Asia and South America, and the growing risk of sovereign asset confiscation eroded trust in fiat-centric financial systems.

In response, capital migrated aggressively into hard assets. Gold, silver and platinum emerged as the year’s standout performers, cementing 2025 as the year of precious metals.

Central banks played a pivotal role. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased 634 tonnes of gold in the first three quarters of the year alone, with full-year purchases projected to approach 1,000 tonnes. This relentless accumulation established a durable price floor and reinforced gold’s role as a sanction-resistant reserve asset.

Silver outperformed even gold, gaining more than 130% and reaching highs near $66 per ounce. Its rally was driven by constrained supply, surging industrial demand, and legislative developments in U.S. states such as Florida and Texas, where precious metals gained transactional recognition.

Top 20 commodities performance in 2025 (y-t-d, as of Dec. 21, 2025)

Monetary policy also contributed. As inflation moderated, major central banks—including the BoC, BoE, and ECB—initiated synchronized rate cuts, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The Federal Reserve followed with three 25bp cuts in the final months of the year, while the Bank of Japan stood alone in hiking rates, albeit from extremely low levels.

CENTRAL  BANK	RATE  (DEC., 2024)	CHANGE  in RATE (bps)	RATE  (DEC., 2025)
Bank of Canada	3.25%	-100	2.25%
Bank of England	4.75%	-100	3.75%
European Central Bank	3.15%*	-100	2.15%
Federal Reserve	4.25%–4.50%	-75	3.50–3.75%
Reserve Bank of Australia	4.35%	-75	3.60%
Bank of Japan	0.25%	+50	0.75%

*refinancing rate

3. Crypto matures—but volatility remains

Cryptocurrency markets displayed signs of maturity in 2025, balancing institutional adoption against macro uncertainty. BTC surpassed $100,000 ahead in the year on regulatory optimism and briefly touched $123,000 before retreating in a broader risk-off correction.

Despite strong ETF inflows and clearer regulatory frameworks—such as the GENIUS Act aimed at stablecoin oversight—BTC ended the year down roughly 6%, lagging far behind gold’s performance. This divergence highlighted crypto’s evolving role: increasingly institutional, yet still sensitive to liquidity cycles and speculative sentiment.

Concerns also emerged that the AI-driven equity boom may be approaching a corrective phase. With global AI spending exceeding $400 billion, cracks began to appear in tech-heavy indices, raising fears of spillover effects into digital asset markets.

Top 20 commodities performance in 2025 (y-t-d, as of Dec. 21, 2025)

Conclusion: a precursor to structural change

Viewed in hindsight, 2025 may be remembered less for any single market shock and more as a transition year. The erosion of the U.S. dollar’s secure-haven status, the historic surge in precious metals, and the cautious maturation of crypto markets point toward deeper structural realignment.

Capital flows in 2025 reflected a growing demand for non-counterparty stability at a time when traditional financial anchors appeared increasingly fragile. Whether the rush into gold and silver proves temporary or marks the ahead stages of a new monetary paradigm will be one of the defining questions for 2026.

What is clear is that the forces shaping global markets are shifting. Investors, traders, and policymakers alike will need to navigate an environment where old assumptions no longer hold—and adaptability becomes the most valuable asset of all.

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To assist its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. 

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 awards, including the ‘Most Reliable Broker Global 2024’ award from Global Forex Awards and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.