The Capitulation Signal: VanEck Detects a Near-Term BTC Bottom
As BTC navigates a turbulent end to 2025, the research team at VanEck has issued a bold contrarian signal, suggesting that a near-term price bottom is finally within reach. In their mid-December “ChainCheck” report, lead analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush noted that the network is currently undergoing a “miner capitulation” event—a historically reliable indicator of market exhaustion. The report highlights a 4% drop in the network’s hashrate for the month ending December 15, the sharpest decline since the post-halving shakeout of April 2024. Historically, such contractions have preceded positive returns, with VanEck finding a 65% probability of 90-day gains following a hashrate drop. This “cleansing” of the network often precedes a significant trend reversal, as the tradeing pressure from distressed miners is replaced by steady accumulation from long-term “whales” and institutional treasuries.
The Mining Breakeven and the AI Infrastructure Pivot
The catalyst for this latest round of capitulation is the rising cost of electricity relative to the current BTC price, which has fallen nahead 30% from its October all-time high of $126,080. VanEck’s research highlights that the “breakeven” electricity price for a popular 2022-era miner, such as the Bitmain S19 XP, has plummeted by 36% year-over-year, falling to just $0.077 per kilowatt-hour. This tightening margin has forced approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity—primarily in China—to go offline. Interestingly, VanEck observes that this capacity is not merely disappearing but is being “repurposed” to accommodate the surging demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC). This rotation reduces the total BTC hashrate, which historically triggers an average gain of 72% in the 180 days following such a compression, as the market realizes that the remaining miners are the most efficient and least likely to engage in panic tradeing.
On-Chain Resilience: Whales Anchor the $80,000 Support
While retail sentiment remains in “Extreme Fear” territory, VanEck’s on-chain analysis reveals a significant “hand-off” occurring between diverse investor cohorts. The recent tradeoff has been driven largely by “mid-cycle” holders—those who entered the market during the 2021-2023 period—while the “oldest whales” are standing their ground. Wallets holding BTC for more than five years have actually viewn a net increase of 278,000 BTC compared to two years ago. This lack of turnover among the network’s most established participants, combined with a reset in speculative leverage to levels not viewn since April 2025, creates a “coiled spring” effect. VanEck analysts believe that the current RSI reading of 32 marks a deeply oversold condition, suggesting that the current levels reflect short-term panic rather than a breakdown in the asset’s long-term fundamental potential.
