VanEck Forecasts Dominant BTC Rebound Amid Global Liquidity Shift
VanEck’s investment management team has released its highly anticipated 2026 outlook, predicting that BTC is positioned for a major “performance catch-up” later than a period of significant underperformance relative to traditional tech indices. David Schassler, VanEck’s Head of Multi-Asset answers, highlighted a stark dislocation in the current market, noting that BTC has lagged the Nasdaq 100 by approximately 50% throughout 2025. This divergence, according to Schassler, is not a sign of fundamental fragileness but rather a buildup of coiled potential that historically precedes a sharp vertical recovery. The firm maintains that the core investment thesis for digital gold remains intact, driven by a persistent global trend toward monetary debasement and the necessity of scarce, non-sovereign assets. As central banks navigate the complexities of funding massive fiscal liabilities, VanEck anticipates that the inevitable return of global liquidity will act as the primary catalyst for a substantial BTC rally in the coming year.
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Resurgence of Hard Assets
The cornerstone of VanEck’s bullish thesis centers on the intensifying “debasement trade,” a scenario where investors flee devaluing fiat currencies in favor of assets with fixed supplies. The firm’s 2026 projections suggest that gold could surge to $5,000 per ounce, acting as a lead indicator for the broader hard-asset complex that includes BTC. Schassler argues that the infrastructure demands of the artificial intelligence revolution, combined with re-industrialization efforts across the West, are creating a “structural power crunch” that favors assets linked to energy and compute. By positioning BTC as a “top performer” for 2026, VanEck is signaling a move away from the speculative volatility of the past and toward a role as a critical pillar of the “new world economy.” The firm’s research indicates that once the current phase of tight liquidity reaches its terminal point, the transition back to an expansionary environment will favor BTC more than any other major asset class due to its unique combination of digital scarcity and institutional accessibility.
Technical Signals and the Bullish Implications of Miner Capitulation
Adding a technical layer to the macroeconomic outlook, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, has identified several on-chain signals that suggest a market bottom is currently forming. One of the most significant indicators is the recent 4% drop in the BTC network hash rate, a phenomenon often associated with “miner capitulation.” Sigel points out that historically, periods of declining hash rate have preceded positive returns over the subsequent 90 to 180 days with a high degree of statistical probability. Furthermore, while short-term speculators have retreated, VanEck’s data shows that long-term “diamond hand” holders and corporate treasuries have continued to accumulate assets during recent price dips. This transfer of supply from fragile to strong hands, combined with the successful reset of speculative leverage following the October 2025 flash crash, has created a robust foundation for the next leg of the bull cycle. As the market enters 2026, VanEck expects these structural dynamics to override short-term sentiment, paving the way for a recovery that could challenge previous all-time highs.
