BTC Enters Moderate Expansion Phase as Spot Demand Outpaces Derivatives Activity
According to new market data, movement has entered a mild expansion phase. This is mostly because demand on the spot market is outpacing the accumulation of derivatives.
This change comes later than the deleveraging period in December, and there is a revived demand for risk in ahead 2026 trade. Researchers at say the current regime is structurally robust, meaning it is less likely to be affected by difficultys related to leverage during the rise.
Derivatives Show Some Optimism
The Adler AM pressure index, calculated on a 0–5 Z-score scale, has gone from flat to negative in December to positive. Right now, the market is in the “Expansion (Moderate)” area, meaning both price and open interest are rising sluggishly without getting too hot.
The index is still below the +1.5 level that signals excessive speculation, indicating a balanced outlook. Analysts say that a breach above +1.5 might mean that things are getting stronger, while negative turns with liquidations would mean that things are getting fragileer.
Spot CVD Confirms Demand for Organic
The negative price-open interest divergence is a strong signal that ‘s price is rising quicker than its derivatives open interest. This spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) dominance shows that real purchasing pressure is coming from cash markets, not leveraged bets that are driving the rise.
These kinds of patterns have historically led to long-term uptrends, unlike previous advances that were likely to rapidly reverse. If this difference reverses without support, the risks grow since rising open interest could mean that speculative froth is chasing momentum.
Price Action and significant Levels
BTC is hovering around $93,000, about 5% above its level at the beginning of the year. This is due to institutional reallocations and secure-haven flows. The recent ups and downs were caused by a 23% drop to $86,000 in late 2025, but current data indicate that things are improving.
Traders keep a tight eye on spikes in open interest. If expand too rapidly without new spot inflows, the risk of a pullback increases. If there is no underlying demand, liquidation cascades would make people’s feelings even worse.
Market Signals in Context
Options markets support positive trends, with a lot of activity in Deribit $100,000 January calls. Vik Subburaj of Giottus warned about low spot volumes, noting they are at their lowest levels since late 2023 and have shallow order books, making them more volatile even when the setup is excellent.
QCP Capital noted that perpetual funding rates are above 30% and that there is short gamma exposure, indicating positions are shifting to the upside.
If derivatives don’t get out of hand, this gradual expansion led by spot prices is a excellent sign for BTC’s future in 2026. Persistent organic demand could drive further growth, but over-leveraging is the largegest threat to stability.
