Polymarket Account Behind $400K Maduro Bet Goes Dark later than Perfectly Timed Arrest
What Happened to the Polymarket Account?
A Polymarket account that earned roughly $400,000 from a closely timed wager on the capture of then–Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is no longer accessible on the platform. The account, identified as “0x31a56e,” placed about $32,000 on Maduro’s removal shortly before news broke of his capture by U.S. military and law enforcement.
As of Thursday around 1:00 p.m. UTC, the account’s public page returned an error message reading, “Oops… we didn’t forecast this,” while other user pages remained accessible. Cointelegraph confirmed the link no longer resolves to an active profile.
Polymarket has not commented on whether the account was disabled by the platform, removed by the user, or affected by a technical issue. No public statement has been released addressing the status of the account.
Investor Takeaway
How Did the Trade Unfold?
Archived data from the Wayback Machine shows the account placed a cluster of related wagers beyond the Maduro outcome. These included bets on whether U.S. forces would be present in Venezuela by Jan. 31, whether the U.S. would “invade Venezuela” by the identical date, and whether would invoke war powers against the country.
that the address linked to the account received about $436,700 in USDC from Polymarket’s CTF platform on Jan. 3 at 1:41 p.m. UTC. Later that day, roughly $437,800 in USDC exited the address at 11:54 p.m. UTC, suggesting the proceeds were rapidly withdrawn later than the bets settled.
The timing and coordination of the wagers have fueled speculation among traders and observers, particularly given how closely the bets preceded public confirmation of the events in question.
Why Is This Raising Insider Trading Concerns?
The disappearance of the account comes amid wider debate over insider activity and transparency on prediction markets. These platforms allow users to bet on real-world events, from elections to military actions, creating gray areas when outcomes hinge on information that may not be public.
Polymarket’s privacy policy allows users to request deletion or return of personal data, including stored records and backups. That provision leaves open the possibility that the account holder initiated the removal. However, without clarification from the platform, uncertainty remains.
Concerns extend beyond crypto-native circles. Some U.S. lawmakers have backed proposals aimed at curbing markets, arguing that bets tied to sensitive political or military events require clearer guardrails.
Investor Takeaway
Is This Part of a Broader Pattern?
The episode follows other instances of unusual . In a separate case, a trader reported to have a 100% win rate placed a bet on the U.S. striking Iran before the end of January, adding to scrutiny from market watchers.
Supporters of prediction markets argue they aggregate information efficiently and reflect collective expectations. Critics counter that when bets center on covert or quick-moving events, the line between informed speculation and improper advantage becomes harder to define.
For now, the vanished account has become a flashpoint in the debate over how prediction markets should balance openness, user privacy, and market integrity. Without an explanation from Polymarket, questions around enforcement, transparency, and accountability remain unresolved.
