BTC Hits Two-Month High as Derivatives Turn Neutral

latest push into the upper $90,000s is doing more than lifting spot prices. It’s begining to shift how traders are positioned in derivatives markets, with ahead signs that sentiment is rotating away from defensive hedging and back toward risk-taking.

That’s the main conclusion from the latest , published January 15. The report argues that later than more than a month of choppy, rangebound action, BTC’s breakout is now showing up in the two places that usually move first when traders get confident: perpetual futures positioning and short-dated options pricing.

What changed in the derivatives market later than BTC’s breakout?

The report flags a pickup in perpetual futures open interest across major assets, aligning with BTC’s move to a two-month high. Open interest rising alongside price is typically read as new money entering positions, rather than a short squeeze fading out. In this case, the interpretation is straightforward: traders are adding long exposure in anticipation of follow-through.

Funding rates are also creeping higher, especially in parts of the altcoin market. That matters because funding is essentially the “carry cost” of being long perps. When funding rises, it suggests traders are willing to pay more to hold long exposure—an ahead signal that risk appetite is improving.

and Block Scholes also noted that BTC’s rally has assisted compress futures term structures. Both BTC and Ether futures curves have clustered at similar levels across maturities, which suggests the market is pricing risk more consistently rather than treating near-term and longer-dated exposure as separate stories.

Are options traders still hedging for downside?

Options markets are showing a quieter shift, but it may be more telling than the perp flows.

Short-dated BTC and Ether options have moved toward a more neutral volatility skew later than spending an extended period pricing in a bearish bias. In plain terms: traders were previously paying up for protective puts, but that put premium has eased as spot strength returned.

What stands out is that implied volatility has stayed relatively subdued despite the move higher. That’s not what you’d view in a full-blown panic rally. Instead, it suggests the market is adjusting positioning gradually—recalibrating expectations rather than bracing for immediate chaos.

Neutral skew doesn’t mean the market is aggressively bullish. It means the demand for protection is cooling, which is often the first step before traders begin bidding calls more heavily.

Investor Takeaway

The $94K–$96K zone is the real battleground

singled out the $94,000 to $96,000 area as a key trigger for sentiment changes. The reason is simple: that range has already acted like a decision point earlier this month.

A previous move through the identical zone briefly pushed options skews back toward neutral, only for the market to slip back once BTC failed to hold the level. This time, positioning has shifted again—but analysts argue a sustained break above that area is still needed before options markets reprice into a more decisively bullish skew.

This is the part most traders watch closely. Breakouts don’t become trends until price holds. If BTC chops back into the range, derivatives markets may revert just as rapidly as they flipped.

Spot demand is still supporting the rally

Beyond derivatives, the report points to continued support from spot flows. Year-to-date inflows into BTC and Ether spot ETFs remain positive, reinforcing the idea that the breakout isn’t purely leverage-driven.

Ether also has its own supply-side tightening story running in parallel. The report notes that around 30% of ETH’s circulating supply is now staked, reducing liquid supply available for trading. That doesn’t guarantee price upside, but it does change the supply-demand balance—especially when risk appetite improves and spot purchaviewrs return.

’s Chief Market Analyst Han Tan framed the move as crypto catching up with other risk assets later than absorbing ahead-2026 geopolitical shocks. He added that the rally supports longer-term $150,000 BTC target for 2026, while warning that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth given geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. monetary policy risk.

Investor Takeaway

For now, the signals are ahead but consistent: futures traders are leaning longer, options markets are less defensive, and spot flows remain constructive. The next test is whether BTC can hold above the $94K–$96K trigger zone long enough to turn this breakout into a trend rather than another short-lived range escape.