Kalshi Surges to 62% Market Share in Prediction Trading
Kalshi’s Rapid Growth
Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated prediction market, announced Thursday it now accounts for 62.2% of global prediction market volume, a sharp rise from just 3.1% one year ago. With $1.3 billion in trading volume recorded so far this month, Kalshi is having one of its best months in nahead a year and has outpaced its decentralized rival Polymarket, which reported $773 million in the identical period, according to The Block’s Data Dashboard.
This marks Kalshi’s first return above the $1 billion threshold since November 2024, when U.S. election-related contracts drove record volumes. CEO Tarek Mansour said the pace of growth reflects surging interest in prediction markets: “It’s remarkable to view how quick Kalshi is growing.”
Although September trading is not yet complete and Polymarket could still close the gap, the trend underscores Kalshi’s momentum, particularly as it builds credibility under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Analysts argue that the ability to serve U.S. users legally gives Kalshi an edge in capturing institutional and retail participation.
Investor Takeaway
How Kalshi and Polymarket Differ
Despite both platforms offering markets where users can bet on the outcomes of events, Kalshi and Polymarket have contrasting business models. Kalshi is a CFTC-registered U.S. platform, designed to comply with existing derivatives rules and aimed at mainstream financial users. Polymarket, by contrast, is a crypto-native, decentralized platform, recently viewking to re-enter the U.S. market through the acquisition of derivatives platform QCEX.
Analysts at Bernstein describe prediction platforms as a “new interface for information” where crypto, AI, and real-time news converge. Platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood are also exploring entry into this market, viewing it as an extension of sports betting, which already represents a multi-billion-dollar business in the U.S. Kalshi and Polymarket, however, are diverseiating by hosting markets on everything from Federal Reserve rate decisions to corporate earnings reports.
Earlier this year, traders bet more than $200 million on Polymarket and $85 million on Kalshi around the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut, highlighting the growing overlap between prediction markets and traditional finance. Both platforms are also experimenting with integrations into popular blockchains, with Kalshi building ties to ecosystems like Solana and Base to broaden its appeal.
Competition, Valuations, and Investor Interest
The rivalry between the two platforms is heating up, not just in volumes but also in valuations. Reports suggest Polymarket is exploring a capital raise at a valuation of $9–$10 billion, reflecting investor confidence in its decentralized approach and global user base. Kalshi, meanwhile, is reportedly close to securing funding at a valuation of around $5 billion, underscoring how rapidly investor sentiment has shifted toward regulated prediction markets.
For both companies, the stakes are high. A valuation in the multi-billion-dollar range would place prediction markets alongside the most valuable emerging segments of crypto, with the potential to attract institutional backers who view them as a complement to existing derivatives markets. But regulatory uncertainty remains a risk factor, particularly as contracts expand into politically sensitive or financially significant domains.
Investor Takeaway
What’s Next for Prediction Markets
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have viewn trading cool later than the 2024 U.S. elections but appear poised for sustained growth as traders increasingly use prediction contracts to hedge or speculate on macroeconomic, political, and corporate outcomes. Analysts believe prediction markets could evolve into a critical layer of financial infrastructure, blending retail speculation with institutional risk management tools.
For Kalshi, the immediate focus will be building liquidity, expanding event categories, and capitalizing on its regulated advantage in the U.S. For Polymarket, the challenge will be navigating its path back into the U.S. while maintaining growth in global markets. Either way, the surge in volumes suggests prediction markets are moving from the margins of crypto into the mainstream of financial innovation.
