Europe Cracks Down on Polymarket as Gambling Concerns Mount
What Action Did Hungary and Portugal Take?
Regulatory pressure on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket intensified this week later than authorities in Hungary and Portugal took steps to restrict the platform’s activity. In Hungary, the Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága ordered a temporary block on Polymarket’s domain and subdomains, citing the “forbidden organization of gambling activities.”
The restriction applies nationwide and will remain in effect while the regulator completes its review. Hungarian users attempting to access the platform now encounter a warning message issued by the authority, confirming that access has been disabled at the network level.
In Portugal, the Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service instructed Polymarket to wind down its operations in the country. As of Monday, however, the platform remained accessible to some users, according to local media reports, indicating that enforcement measures were still being rolled out.
Investor Takeaway
Why Are Regulators Targeting Polymarket?
The actions in Hungary and Portugal follow a broader European trend. Regulators across the continent have focused on Polymarket’s core model, which tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, geopolitical events, or policy decisions. Prices are set by market participants rather than a bookmaker, a structure supporters compare to financial markets.
Regulators, however, have largely rejected that distinction. In their view, contracts tied to uncertain real-world outcomes resemble betting activity and therefore fall under national gambling laws. Because Polymarket does not hold gambling licenses in many jurisdictions, authorities have opted for access restrictions rather than fines or negotiated compliance.
Hungary’s decision comes shortly later than Ukraine blocked Polymarket, classifying its activity as unlicensed gambling under domestic law. That move added momentum to an enforcement pattern that has already spread across much of .
How Widespread Are the Restrictions?
Polymarket has now been restricted or blocked in a growing list of countries. France announced plans to block the platform in November for failing to comply with national gambling rules. Switzerland followed later that month later than its gambling authority reached a similar conclusion.
Poland added Polymarket to its registry of prohibited gambling websites in ahead January 2025. Singapore blocked access days later as part of a wider effort against unlicensed platforms. Belgium’s regulator took comparable action at the end of January, citing violations of domestic gambling legislation.
According to Polymarket’s own disclosures, the platform is already geoblocked in 33 countries. The latest actions suggest that list is likely to grow rather than shrink, particularly within the remains a national competence.
Investor Takeaway
Does Rising Volume Change the Regulatory Picture?
The regulatory squeeze . a record $701.7 million on Jan. 12, with competitor Kalshi accounting for roughly two-thirds of that activity. The growth highlights strong demand for markets that aggregate information through price discovery rather than polling.
Polymarket itself has drawn added attention later than a controversial trade earlier this year. On Jan. 3, a user placed a small bet on a contract predicting the removal of Venezuela’s president shortly before U.S. forces captured him, turning a $32 wager into roughly $400,000. The timing raised questions about insider knowledge and prompted scrutiny from lawmakers.
In the United States, proposed legislation would restrict government officials from , adding another layer of pressure on the sector. While the proposals do not directly target Polymarket’s international operations, they signal growing discomfort with the intersection of politics, markets, and insider information.
What Comes Next for Polymarket?
Polymarket did not immediately comment on the latest actions in Hungary and Portugal. The platform has previously argued that its contracts function as information markets rather than gambling products, but that argument has gained little traction with regulators so far.
The immediate risk is further access restrictions across Europe, particularly in countries where gambling authorities have broad powers to block websites without lengthy court processes. Longer term, prediction markets may face a choice between pursuing local licensing frameworks or retreating to a smaller set of permissive jurisdictions.
