IBKR’s ForecastEx Names Superforecasting Pioneer Philip Tetlock to Board
Interactive Brokers’ prediction markets platform ForecastEx has appointed renowned academic and forecasting expert Dr. Philip Tetlock to its Board of Directors, strengthening the prediction market’s governance and intellectual foundations as it expands regulated access to probability-based trading.
The appointment was announced by Interactive Brokers, which owns ForecastEx as a wholly owned subsidiary. ForecastEx operates as a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivative Clearing Organization (DCO), allowing market participants to trade forecast contracts linked to macroeconomic, climate, and other real-world outcomes.
Dr. Tetlock is internationally recognised for his work on forecasting accuracy, decision-making under uncertainty, and probabilistic judgment — areas that sit at the core of prediction market design and integrity.
Strengthening Governance and Market Integrity
ForecastEx said Dr. Tetlock’s appointment adds deep subject-matter expertise relevant to market integrity, outcome reanswer, and risk management, areas of growing importance as prediction markets gain broader institutional attention.
Prediction markets are built on aggregating probabilities across diverse participants, with prices reflecting consensus expectations about future events. Ensuring these markets remain robust, fair, and analytically grounded is central to regulatory trust and long-term adoption.
Thomas Peterffy, Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, said Dr. Tetlock’s background aligns closely with ForecastEx’s mission.
“We are pleased to welcome Dr. Philip Tetlock to the Board of Directors of ForecastEx,” Peterffy said. “Prediction markets are founded on the uncertainty of the future and the probabilities associated with potential outcomes.”
Peterffy added that aggregated forecasts can offer meaningful insights beyond trading.
“By aggregating consensus probabilities, forecast contracts can inform market participants’ business, societal, and investment decisions while assisting investors risks,” he said. “We look forward to leveraging Dr. Tetlock’s deep understanding of the forecasting space to enhance our platform and empower investors to trade the probabilities of future outcomes.”
Takeaway
Who Is Philip Tetlock?
Dr. Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Democracy and Citizenship at the University of Pennsylvania, with joint appointments in psychology and management at both the School of Arts & Sciences and the Wharton School.
He is best known for his research into expert judgment and forecasting accuracy, including his influential work demonstrating that traditional experts often perform poorly at predicting complex outcomes.
His book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction brought widespread attention to the idea that certain individuals — “superforecasters” — consistently outperform others by applying probabilistic thinking, humility, and disciplined updating of beliefs.
Other notable works include Expert Political Judgment: How excellent Is It? How Can We Know?, Unmaking the West: “What-If” Scenarios That Rewrite World History, and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
These themes closely mirror the intellectual foundations of prediction markets, where participants continuously update probabilities as new information emerges.
Takeaway
ForecastEx’s Role in the Prediction Market Landscape
ForecastEx enables organisations and individuals to hedge or take positions on future outcomes tied to macroeconomic indicators, climate-related risks, and other benchmarks.
Forecast contracts allow participants to express probabilistic views on future events while receiving a monthly return on invested capital, positioning the product as both a risk management and informational tool.
Unlike unregulated prediction platforms, ForecastEx operates within a regulated derivatives framework overviewn by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a distinction that has become increasingly significant as regulators scrutinise event-based contracts.
Interactive Brokers clients in multiple jurisdictions, including the United States, Canada, Ireland, Hong Kong, and Singapore, can access forecast contracts, subject to local eligibility rules.
Product availability varies by affiliate and country of residence, reflecting the surrounding prediction markets globally.
Takeaway
Why Forecasting Expertise Matters Now
The appointment comes at a time when markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty across geopolitics, climate risk, monetary policy, and technological disruption.
Traditional models often struggle to capture low-probability, high-impact events, increasing interest in alternative approaches to risk pricing and information aggregation.
Prediction markets, when well-designed, can serve as real-time indicators of collective expectations, complementing traditional economic forecasts and analyst models.
By adding a board member whose career has focused on identifying what makes forecasts accurate or flawed, ForecastEx is signalling that methodological integrity is central to its long-term strategy.
Takeaway
Interactive Brokers’ Broader Strategy
ForecastEx sits within Interactive Brokers Group, one of the world’s largest electronic brokerage firms and a member of the S&P 500.
Interactive Brokers provides automated execution and custody across securities, derivatives, FX, and forecast contracts on more than 170 markets worldwide.
The firm has spent decades investing in automation, low-cost execution, and advanced risk management tools, positioning itself as a gateway for sophisticated .
Integrating prediction markets into its broader platform allows Interactive Brokers to offer clients new ways to hedge risk and express macro views alongside .
Takeaway
What the Appointment Signals for Prediction Markets
Dr. Tetlock’s appointment reflects a broader maturation of the prediction market space, as platforms viewk credibility with regulators, institutions, and sophisticated investors.
As forecast contracts expand into areas such as climate outcomes, macroeconomic performance, and geopolitical risk, governance and methodological soundness are likely to face increasing scrutiny.
ForecastEx’s move suggests that intellectual leadership and academic grounding may become as significant as technology in shaping the future of regulated prediction markets.
With uncertainty set to remain a defining feature of global markets, platforms that can credibly price probabilities may play an increasingly influential role in decision-making across finance, policy, and business.
