Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: Uk services & manufacturing PMI, US GDP, US PCE index

Tuesday

• Flash British services PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. Market participants are expecting the publication to be at 53.6 points compared to the 54.2 points of August. The services sector in the UK has managed to remain above the 50 point mark for the last 25 months (excluding April of 2025 where it was at around 49). This shows the health and strength of the sevice sector in the UK and could potentially create some support for the quid in the immediate later thanmath of the release.
• Flash British manufacturing PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. The expectations for the figure are 47.2 compared to the previous 47. Even though UK manufacturing has been improving since March, it still failed to surpass the 50-point mark, which was last viewn around September of last year.

Thursday

• US GDP growth rate for the second quarter at 12:30 GMT. Market consensus is for an increase from -0.5% to 3.3%. This data is considered a lagging indicator since it’s for the previous quarter rather than the current one. Therefore, the data might be already priced in, so it might not have a significant effect on the greenback.

Friday

• US core PCE expected to be released at 12:30 GMT is anticipated to drop by 0.1% for the month of August. The PCE index shows the changes in the price of excellents and services bought by consumers for consumption and it excludes food and energy. The PCE reading is one of the vital components taken into account by the Federal reserve when deciding on their monetary policy and a sluggish down of the Index reading could probably influence a more dovish stance on the Fed next meeting. shift away from this figure will most certainly create volatility on the yen pairs.

USOIL, daily

Oil prices fell on Friday as concerns about abundant supply and fragileening demand outweighed optimism from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut of the year. OPEC is easing its production cuts, Russian exports remain unaffected by sanctions, and the refinery maintenance season is set to reduce demand further.

The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in last week’s meeting, with hints of more cuts to come, but experts argued that such small moves won’t lift oil markets given fragile fundamentals. Energy agencies have all flagged sluggishing demand, and a surprise 4 million-barrel build in U.S. distillate stockpiles added pressure to prices.

On the technical side, the price of crude oil has declined later than finding sufficient resistance on the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic is still at neutral levels while the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend in the market. The Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes. In any case, the price area of $62 is still the major technical support area that the price failed to break below in the past 2 months.

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold ended the week near record highs, marking a fifth straight weekly gain as the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut fueled momentum. Lower rates boosted bullion’s appeal, pushing spot prices to an intraday record of more than $3700 last week. The Fed signaled more easing ahead despite inflation risks, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggesting further cuts at upcoming meetings. With opportunity costs of holding gold falling, the metal has surged nahead 40% this year, keeping the outlook firmly bullish.

From a technical point of view, the price of gold viewms to have resumed the bullish momentum late last week and, as of now, there are no major signs of a reversal just yet. Moving averages are still validating the overall bullish trend, while the Bollinger bands are quite expanded, showing that volatility is there to support any major move. On the other hand, the Stochastic oscillator is the only sign of a bearish correction since it’s in the extreme overbought levels; however, it has been in this level for quite some time, more than a month to be more precise, and that somewhat invalidates the meaning of the oscillator altogether since it may remain in this level for some time.

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