Solana Price Forecast: Will Hong Kong Event Spark the Next SOL Breakout?

The cryptocurrency market remains volatile in ahead 2026, and Solana (SOL) is correcting amid broader market pressure. SOL is at about $78 as of February 12, 2026. This is down from a recent high, but it viewms to be holding up well despite institutional interest and ecosystem growth. The Consensus Hong Kong 2026 event took place from February 10 to 12. 

One of the events was Solana Accelerate APAC, where , the president of the Solana Foundation, discussed how the network could assist make peer-to-peer electronic payments a reality. This vision, together with strategic shifts toward financial utility, has sparked debate over whether the event could trigger a price breakout. 

Using , expert predictions, and past trends, this article examines Solana’s current situation, what might happen due to the Hong Kong event, and price predictions for 2026.

Solana has a market worth of over $45 billion, and its high-throughput architecture makes it a candidate for widespread adoption. If positive factors come together, SOL might rise to $200-$400 by the end of the year.

A Look at the Hong Kong Consensus Event

The Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference was a key event for blockchain leaders, and it began on February 10 with Solana Accelerate APAC. The event brought together more than 2,000 builders, executives, and policymakers to discuss how the Asia-Pacific region could assist blockchain grow.

One of the main speakers was Lily Liu, who talked about Solana’s vision for “internet capital markets.” Liu that Solana is the only Layer 1 blockchain that can bring transaction times and fees down to almost zero, which is necessary for global financial use. She criticised the industry’s prior focus on disputes over scalability and called for a shift toward real-world infrastructure.

Liu talked about online capital markets in her fireside chat. These markets support both crypto-native and tokenized traditional assets. Liu said something significant that Solana on social media: “If Solana doesn’t do it, nobody will.”

This remark shows that Solana is uniquely positioned to achieve BTC’s original goal of being a peer-to-peer electronic payment system.

Anatoly Yakovenko, one of the co-founders of Solana, also suggested changes to tokenomics. He called for a minimum initial circulating supply of 20% and strong staking mechanisms to stop predatory pricing. The presentation also showcased collaborations, including BYDFi’s, and made the case for Solana’s expansion into Asia’s established payment ecosystems.

Analysts think this is a smart move to shift the focus from consumer Web3 stories to financial rails, which could lead more institutions to adopt the technology.

Solana’s Plan for Electronic Cash Between People

Solana’s goal to lay the foundation for decentralised finance, enabling capital to flow freely, was at the heart of the talks in Hong Kong. Liu the importance of open financial systems for clearing, settlement, and lending. She compared Solana’s effect on finance to Amazon’s on e-commerce.

She said that gaming and Web3 tendencies that are “intellectually lazy” and focus on consumers are poor, and she called for more useful markets. The Asia-Pacific region, which has many super apps, was identified as a crucial part of this change.

During an interview with CoinDesk during the event, Joseph Chee, Executive Chairman of HSDT (part of the Solana ecosystem), said that Solana’s next growth phase might begin in Asia, where he thinks the first billion blockchain users will come from. This fits with Solana’s architecture, which is quick and cheap and can support finality in less than a second. 

Block confirmers have authorised upcoming updates, such as Alpenglow, that aim for finality in less than 200 milliseconds. This will improve and high-frequency applications. Yakovenko’s tokenomics answer addresses difficultys such as “low float, high FDV,” making launches fairer and secureguarding regular traders.

These changes, shown during the event, could assist Solana shift from meme currencies to stablecoins and tokenisation, providing long-term value.

Current Market Analysis and SOL Performance

SOL’s price is about $81 as of February 12, 2026. This is down from previous highs but above the significant support level of $75-$80. The is at 28.60, indicating the market is oversold and could bounce back.

Network fees have recently risen to 65,000 SOL, a level typically associated with a price range of $120 to $180. This suggests that activity has picked up again. But SOL is in a declining channel, and it can’t get past $95 or $120.

The market mood is mixed, as altcoins lost up to 6.5% of their value in February. Institutional flows, like Morgan Stanley’s application for the , have made people more hopeful. The indicators for Solana’s ecosystem are still robust, with more DeFi, NFTs, and consumer apps being added.

Prediction markets like Myriad say the chances of an altcoin season in Q1 are minimal, but analysts expect institutional capital to return in H2 2026. The Hong Kong event’s focus on tokenisation and payments should benefit the market, especially given $3.71 billion in tokenised deposits in Hong Kong.

Things That Could Cause a SOL Breakout

The event in could trigger a breakout by highlighting Solana’s financial shift and attracting APAC investment. John KC Lee, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, reiterated his commitment to a sustainable digital asset ecosystem, which aligns with Solana’s vision.

Upgrades like Firedancer and Alpenglow, planned for ahead 2026, promise better scalability, which could lead more people to use micropayments and RWAs.

Economic issues include the Fed’s policy and the performance of ETFs. If the price breaks $95, it might go up to $110-$190. Bearish risks include going below $80 and probing the $60–$70 range. Analysts say that Solana will fall behind in 2026–2027, but they view long-term growth potential in stablecoin demand.

Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered cut his 2026 SOL forecast from $310 to $250, as ETF timeframes are moving more sluggishly. However, he thinks it might reach $2,000 by 2030 if micropayments continue to grow.

Price Prediction for Solana in 2026

Experts have diverse predictions for SOL in 2026, suggesting they are cautiously optimistic. Standard Chartered said that by the end of the year, the price will be $250 and by 2027, it will be $400.

CoinDCX expects the price to rise to $260- $320 due to the growth of . Changelly says the price will range from $194.81 to $229.77, with an average of $201.55. Coinfomania’s $280-$400 price range is more positive and is linked to Firedancer and stablecoins.

AI models like ChatGPT say that prices will be between $80 and $90 in February, while MEXC says they will be between $150 and $180. InvestingHaven thinks the price will fluctuate between $95 and $300. If SOL returns to $95, the event’s momentum could accelerate the recovery and lead to a 140% rally to $180. Motley Fool thinks that if pivots work, the price will reach $250 in 2026 and $2,000 by 2030.

Risks and The Future

Market downturns, delays in improvements, and competition from ETH are all risks. Indicators showing too many sales signal a bounce, but a might push the price to $42 if the supports collapse.

excellent things: bets from institutions, growth in APAC, and hype around events. At Consensus, VCs talked about how money is moving toward “what’s working,” like stablecoins. The future viewms excellent for a sluggish comeback. The Hong Kong event could spark interest if it leads to real integrations.