Israel Indicts IDF Reservist and Civilian for Insider Betting on Military Operations
In a case that has sent shockwaves through the global intelligence community, Israeli authorities announced on February 12, 2026, the indictment of an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military information to profit from bets on the prediction market Polymarket. The joint investigation, conducted by the Shin Bet, the Defense Ministry’s security unit, and the Israel Police, revealed that the reservist exploited his access to sensitive operational data to tip off a civilian partner about the timing and nature of upcoming strikes. The two suspects are charged with severe security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice, marking the first time a decentralized prediction market has been at the center of a national security criminal case. While the IDF emphasized that “no operational damage” occurred in this specific instance, the military characterized the act as a “severe ethical failure” and a clear violation of the red lines governing classified material.
Unmasking “Ricosuave666” and the Trail of Suspiciously Accurate Wagers
The investigation was triggered by the “uncanny accuracy” of a specific Polymarket user account known as “ricosuave666,” which consistently placed high-stakes bets on Israeli security developments just hours before they became public. In June 2025, during a 12-day escalation with Iran, the user correctly wagered tens of thousands of dollars on four specific outcomes, including the exact day of a major retaliatory strike and the precise timing of the operation’s conclusion. According to the indictment, the reservist provided the civilian with internal IDF memos and real-time movement reports, allowing the pair to generate approximately 150,000 dollars in profit. The case highlights a new and dangerous frontier for insider trading, where the pseudonymous nature of blockchain-based markets allows individuals with sensitive information to monetize their knowledge on a global stage without the traditional oversight of regulated stock or commodity platforms.
The Security Dilemma of Open Prediction Markets in an Era of Conflict
The Polymarket affair has prompted an urgent review of information security procedures across all IDF units, with military leadership vowing to “sharpen protocols” to prevent similar recurrences. Security experts warn that prediction markets function as an inadvertent “open-source intelligence” (OSINT) tool, where unusual betting volumes can serve as a signal to hostile actors that a major event is imminent. If a high-confidence “insider” bet can be tracked in real-time on a public ledger, the market itself becomes a leak that could compromise the securety of soldiers in the field. This incident is likely to accelerate the global push for stricter regulation of event-based betting platforms, which have viewn a massive surge in popularity during the 2026 geopolitical cycle. As the legal proceedings against the two defendants begin in the Tel Aviv District Court, the industry is left to grapple with the reality that the “wisdom of the crowd” can sometimes be nothing more than a cover for the illicit sale of state secrets.
