Global FX Market Summary: Monetary Policy and Central Banks, Economic Indicators and Performance, Currency and Commodity Markets 22 September 2025

RBA cautious, Fed divided, PBoC steady; mixed economic data; AUD fragile, USD softer, gold surges, oil stable, markets watch policy.

Monetary Policy and Central Banks
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is taking a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, primarily due to “stubborn inflation” in Australia. This contrasts with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which recently implemented a rate cut but now shows a “wildly” divergent narrative among policymakers regarding future actions. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, despite mixed economic signals from China. The overall impact of these central bank decisions on their respective currencies and the global financial markets is a recurring theme.

Economic Indicators and Performance
Australia’s domestic economy shows surprising resilience, with positive data in Manufacturing and Services PMIs, retail sales, and GDP growth. In the US, upcoming data releases include S&P Global Flash PMIs, GDP, and the crucial Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. China presents a mixed picture, with solid Q2 GDP growth but disappointing retail sales and a manufacturing PMI that has slipped back into contraction. This focus on data-driven analysis underpins the decisions and outlooks of policymakers.

Currency and Commodity Markets
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recently slipped below the 0.6600 support level later than failing to hold above 0.6700. In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) has lost momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) giving back some recent gains. Gold prices surged to a new all-time high, driven by speculation of deeper Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions. WTI Crude Oil remains trapped in a narrow range. These market movements are closely tied to monetary policy decisions and economic data releases.

Top upcoming economic events:

Monday, September 22, 2025

1. S&P Global Services PMI (AUD)

• Date: 09/22/2025 at 23:00:00
• Importance: This is a key indicator for the Australian dollar (AUD). The Services PMI provides a timely snapshot of the health of Australia’s service sector, which is a major component of the country’s economy. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The result can influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decisions and impact investor sentiment towards the AUD.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

1. HCOB Composite PMI (EUR)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 07:30:00
• Importance: As a “HIGH” impact event, this is a significant report for the Eurozone economy. The Composite PMI combines both manufacturing and services sectors to provide an overall view of economic health. A strong reading suggests economic expansion, which could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider tightening monetary policy, thus strengthening the euro (EUR).

1. S&P Global Composite PMI (GBP)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 08:30:00
• Importance: This is a “HIGH” impact report for the British Pound (GBP) and the UK economy. It gives a comprehensive view of the private sector’s health. The data provides valuable insight into business conditions, including new orders, output, and employment, which are crucial for the Bank of England (BoE) when making decisions about interest rates.

1. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (USD)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 13:45:00
• Importance: This “HIGH” impact event for the US dollar (USD) gives a snapshot of the manufacturing sector’s activity. As the manufacturing sector is a vital part of the U.S. economy, a strong report can signal economic growth and potentially lead to a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), supporting the USD.

1. S&P Global Services PMI (USD)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 13:45:00
• Importance: This “HIGH” impact report is a critical indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, as the services sector is its largest component. The data can influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with a higher-than-expected reading potentially boosting the USD.

6. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 16:35:00
• Importance: As the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s speeches are among the most closely watched events in the financial world. A “HIGH” impact event, any comments on monetary policy, inflation, or the economic outlook can cause significant volatility in the USD and global markets.

1. BoC’s Governor Macklem speech (CAD)

• Date: 09/23/2025 at 18:30:00
• Importance: This is a “HIGH” impact event for the Canadian dollar (CAD). The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, can provide insights into the central bank’s future policy direction. His comments on inflation, employment, and economic growth can have a direct and significant impact on the CAD.

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

1. Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUD)

• Date: 09/24/2025 at 01:30:00
• Importance: This “HIGH” impact report is Australia’s primary measure of inflation. It is a critical piece of data for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it guides their decisions on interest rates. A higher-than-expected reading could increase the likelihood of a rate hike, which would be bullish for the AUD.

1. IFO – Business Climate (EUR)

• Date: 09/24/2025 at 08:00:00
• Importance: This “MEDIUM” impact event provides a key measure of business sentiment in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. The IFO survey is a leading indicator of economic activity and can give insight into the future direction of the German and, by extension, the broader Eurozone economy, impacting the EUR.

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