In September, the S&P 500 Index Hits a Fresh All-Time High
September is traditionally considered the fragileest month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Yet in 2025 the pattern may be breaking, as the index has climbed to a new record, pushing above 6,520 points.
The current bullish momentum is being fuelled by:
→ Expectations of a September rate cut, which investors believe could boost the US economy and corporate earnings.
→ Stronger-than-expected economic data, with the ISM Services PMI coming in at 52.0 versus a forecast of 50.9, pointing to ongoing growth.
→ Robust earnings reports, such as Broadcom (AVGO), which delivered solid results yesterday.
Technical Outlook for the S&P 500
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) as of August 28, we observed:
→ a support zone forming near 6,370;
→ multiple bearish signals, with 6,500 noted as psychological resistance and a possible area for a false breakout.
Since then, price action (highlighted by the blue arrows) unfolded as follows:
→ a false breakout above 6,500;
→ a pullback to test the 6,370 support zone;
→ a subsequent rebound, forming a large bullish engulfing pattern.
New information now lets us refine the short-term channel (drawn in blue), presenting two possible scenarios:
→ Bearish case: price is near the channel’s upper boundary, which showed resistance earlier today (red arrow). The latest candlestick features a long upper shadow, signalling potential tradeing pressure.
→ Bullish case: the rally suggests an imbalance favouring purchaviewrs, with the Fair Value Gap pattern pointing to sustained strength. The breakout above 6,500 also looks valid, given that price is consolidating above this level.
Both outlooks carry weight, but the market will likely be swayed by the release of US labour market data today at 15:30 GMT+3 — arguably the week’s most significant economic release. Depending on the numbers, the S&P 500 could:
→ push through the upper boundary of the channel, or
→ retreat toward the channel’s median line.
Either way, traders should prepare for potential spikes in volatility.
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