BTC Could Hit $3.4M by 2028 Under Fed Yield Curve Control and Trump Policies, Says Arthur Hayes
Crypto billionaire and BitMex co-founder, , forecasts that BTC could reach $3.4 million by 2028, driven by the ’s adoption of Trump’s yield curve control (YCC) plan, and a possible $15 trillion injection of new credit into the economy.
Hayes builds his projection on historical precedent: in the 1940s, the Fed capped bond yields to finance massive spending cycles, triggering intense credit growth.
He argues that if the incoming administration “stacks” the Fed board with allies and launches a “World War II-scale monetary expansion” to aggressively purchase bonds, will become the premier hedge against dollar debasement, appreciating in direct proportion to the new credit created.
As a result, BTC will be uniquely positioned to benefit due to its deflationary nature and historical correlation with credit growth.
Hayes stressed that the target is directional, highlighting that BTC is the strongest asset with potential to outperform traditional assets in an era of monetary expansion, thanks to its role as a store of value.
He also pointed out that global liquidity trends, such as U.S. Treasury purchasebacks and regulatory changes like the , could drive greater demand for BTC as a decentralized substitute for fiat currencies.
Investor Takeaway
Hayes’ Model: BTC Price Surge Driven by Credit Expansion
Hayes’ calculations are based on a quantitative model that links BTC’s price to US credit growth. Analyzing post-pandemic and WWII periods, he applies a metric of 0.19% BTC price growth for every additional dollar of credit expansion observed in recent cycles.
He views Trump’s fiscal agenda and the Fed’s new “third mandate,” adding yield stability to its objectives, as the institutional trigger for YCC and rapid money supply growth.
According to Hayes, if the Fed injects $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028, the math targets a $3.4 million BTC, with digital assets absorbing liquidity from global institutions hedging unprecedented fiat expansion.
Hayes also recently offered a near-term bullish case for a BTC by year-end 2025, hinging on Fed rate cuts and rising market liquidity.
BTC is currently trading at $113,025 according to , showing steady growth over the past few months. Hayes attributes the short-term volatility to changing market dynamics and ongoing political instability.
Investor Takeaway
Hayes’ BTC Forecast Reaction and Market Outlook
Hayes’ $3.4 million target has been met with a mix of excitement and skepticism. Some, including’s Andre Dragosch, dismiss liquidity-driven price projections as “useless banana,” pointing to BTC’s supply inelasticity as limiting long-term inflation.
Others note that global liquidity and macro volatility do drive major BTC adoption cycles, making the scenario plausible if unprecedented stimulus returns under “Trump 2.0.” Markets remain focused on , emerging Treasury programs, and signals of Republican fiscal policy as key leading indicators.
Near term, BTC trades near $115,000, with volatility spikes tied to political headlines and Fed guidance. Institutional allocators continue to ramp up , tracking the macro thesis that now animates Hayes’s bold forecasts.
