BTC: Trade $108K–$113K Range Ahead of $22B Options Expiry

BTC inched up to $109,572.79 (+0.47%) on Friday later thannoon later than sliding below $109,000 at the U.S. open, with traders digesting a clean read on inflation and bracing for a heavy quarter-end options expiry. The move capped a choppy week shaped by ETF outflows, forced deleveraging and a widening split between spot and derivatives flows.

The PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred gauge—matched forecasts: headline +0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) and core +0.2% m/m (2.9% y/y). The print kept rate-cut bets intact but failed to spark a risk bid. BTC’s bounce was modest, leaving the token near six-week lows and on track for a weekly drop of more than 5%.

Microstructure stays tense. Order-book data show thick liquidity bands above and below spot, with clustered bids around $108,200 on Binance and short-side liquidations layered from $110,000 up, creating “magnet” zones that can accelerate moves in either direction. Glassnode flagged another wave of long liquidations as price slipped under $111k, calling it “a broad deleveraging event” that can reset positioning and reduce the odds of cascading tradeoffs.

Derivatives led the damage. CoinGlass tallied ~$1 billion in 24-hour crypto liquidations, largely longs. Funding rates turned negative and the spot-to-perp volume ratio slid, showing futures are steering near-term direction. At 08:00 UTC, ~$22 billion in crypto options were set to expire into quarter-end—over $17 billion in interest that can add torque if support breaks.

Flows were unsupportive midweek. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw about $258 million of net outflows on Sept. 25, with only BlackRock’s IBIT in the green, while Ether ETFs posted ~ $251 million in redemptions—their fourth straight session of withdrawals—according to dashboard data cited in reports. On-chain, whales have been net tradeers since Aug. 21, and long-term holders have taken profits, a mix that has leaned on spot even as ETF prints swing day to day.

Technicals are fragile but defined. BTC sits in a lower-highs, lower-lows channel later than last week’s failure near $114,000. The $109,000–$109,500 pocket is the first line; beneath, traders flag $108,000–$108,600 (recent wick lows and bid clusters) and then the $101,000–$105,000 zone if momentum sours. On the topside, a push back above $111,500–$113,500 with volume would force short covering and reset the tone. As one market note put it, “If this level holds, BTC could rally towards $112,000. In case of a breakdown, BTC will retest $101,000 support region before reversal.”

Macro hasn’t assisted. Powell’s message this week—rates restrictive for longer while inflation cools only gradually—kept risk appetite contained. Correlations have been jumpy: a brief negative print versus the Nasdaq underscored how crypto can detach when flows are dominated by leverage and expiry dynamics.

ETH stayed heavy near $3,930, down about 12% on the week later than losing the $4,000 handle. Over $210 million in ETH longs were liquidated in a day at one point, the largest flush since August. Altcoins bled: Solana and Cardano slipped, XRP hovered near $2.75, and memecoins fragileened. BTC’s market dominance edged up as capital rotated toward the relative securety of the largest asset.

The policy backdrop is a mixed bag. The CFTC is studying collateral, a long-term positive for market plumbing, even as the SEC delayed rulings on proposed Ether spot products to October. In the UK, banks pressed ahead with tokenised deposit pilots under existing isn’t due until 2026—evidence that regulated rails are advancing even as crypto-native products face staggered approvals.

Deal news added color: Kraken raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation ahead of a planned 2026 IPO, according to reports, while TeraWulf is exploring about $3 billion in financing—potentially via high-yield bonds or loans—to expand data-center capacity with a tech-backed structure.

Seasonality offers a sliver of hope. October has been friendly to BTC in several recent years, a point some strategists cited while warning that confirmation requires steadier ETF inflows and a reclaim of the $113,500–$116,000 corridor. As BRN’s Timothy Misir put it in a note shared this week: “Long-term flows and seasonality still favor crypto’s medium-term case, yet the market is fragile. Confirmation arrives when ETF flows stabilize and BTC reclaims the $113,500–$116,000 corridor with volume.”

For now, the playbook is straightforward: respect nearby supports, watch options settlement, and track ETF prints. If Friday’s expiry passes without fresh stress and the PCE-anchored rate path keeps easing expectations alive, the market has room to base. Lose the $109,000 shelf with momentum, and the $101,000–$105,000 grid comes back into view quick.