Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near-term outlook. 

Highlights of the week: NBS manufacturing, RBA decision, EU flash inflation, US manufacturing & services PMI, US job report

Tuesday

• NBS manufacturing PMI at 01:30 AM GMT where the expectations are for a slight increase reaching 49.6 points. If the expectations are correct then it would mean that the state owned firms might be performing slightly better but have yet to reach the 50 point level indicating that the manufacturing sector of the NBS survey might still be shrinking and probably might have some effect on production related products like oil, natural gas, silver etc.  
• RBA interest rate decision at 04:30 AM GMT where the market is expecting that the interest rates will remain stable at 3.6%. In the event however that we have a surprise hike or cut by the Reserve bank then it might create minor gains or losses for the Aussie Dollar respectively.  
• Preliminary German inflation rate at 12:00 PM GMT. The market consensus for the month of September is for an increase on the figure of around 0.1% reaching 2.3%. If this is broadly accurate then it could most probably influence the European inflation figure on the following day. 

Wednesday

• Flash European inflation rate at 09:00 AM GMT. The rate for the month of September is expected to increase to 2.3% up from the previous reading of 2%. This could affect positively the Euro against its pairs at least in the short term. 
• US manufacturing PMI  at 14:00 GMT. The consensus is for an increase from 48.7 to 49.2 points. Even though the expectations are for an improved image of the manufacturing sector in the U.S it is still below the 50 point mark suggesting that the manufacturing sector is still struggling to improve. 

Friday

• US Job report at 12:30 GMT where the non farm payrolls and unemployment rate are going to be published. The expectations for the NFP is for an increase to reach 39,000 against the previous recording of 22,000. If these expectations are correct, we might view that the dollar could move up in various pairs in the later thanmath of the release. On the other hand the unemployment rate is expected to remain static at 4.3%.
•  US Services PMI at 14:00 GMT for the month of September. The consensus is for the figure to remain stable at 52 points. This might be rather bullish news for the Dollar since it would mean that the services sector in the States is still expanding for the whole of 2025 so far.

USOIL, daily

Oil prices slipped at the begin of the week as expectations of another OPEC+ production hike in November added to oversupply worries. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $65, with the alliance led by Saudi Arabia considering raising output beyond the already scheduled October increase of 137,000 barrels a day. Most members, aside from Saudi Arabia, are already at their production ceilings, meaning actual supply growth will likely fall short of official targets. Still, China’s strong crude purchases have assisted prices remain relatively supported. The International Energy Agency warned of a record surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ revives more supply while rival producers expand output. Goldman Sachs projects crude could slide into the mid-$50s next year despite ongoing Chinese stockpiling.

On the technical side, crude oil prices have been trading in a sideways channel formation with upper and lower boundaries around $66 and $62, respectively. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 100-day moving average, just below the upper boundary of the channel. The Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, while the moving averages validate an overall bearish trend.

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold climbed to a fresh record above $3,800 in ahead Monday trading, supported by secure-haven demand as the U.S. faces the risk of a government shutdown. The move was reinforced by U.S. inflation data that matched expectations, keeping bets alive for further Fed rate cuts this year. Markets now view an 88% chance of a cut in October and a 65% chance of another in December. Traders are watching speeches from multiple Fed officials later Monday for signals on policy, as any hawkish tone could lift the dollar and pressure gold. Meanwhile, personal income and spending slightly exceeded forecasts, but analysts said the data do not derail expectations for continued easing.

 From a technical point of view, the price of gold sustains the bullish trend without any major signs of a reversal just yet. The Stochastic oscillator has been in extreme overbought levels for more than a month; therefore, its validity is not significant or dependable to build any short trades. Moving averages are still validating the overall bullish trend, while the Bollinger bands are quite expanded, showing that volatility is there to support any major move. 

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