Robinhood in Talks With FCA on Expanding Prediction Markets Abroad
Discussions With UK Regulator
Robinhood has held talks with overseas regulators, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), as it considers expanding its prediction markets business outside the United States, Bloomberg reported. The trading platform is viewking clarity on how such products would be classified, given regulatory treatment differs by jurisdiction.
In the U.S., prediction market event contracts are regulated as futures, while in other countries they are often viewed more like gambling. “It’s a swap here in the United States. So the question would be where is swap oversight, let’s say in the UK? That’s a question that we’ve been asking the FCA, how do we work it?” said JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, according to Bloomberg.
Investor Takeaway
Growth in Event Contracts
The push comes as Robinhood reports rapid growth in its prediction markets product. CEO Vlad Tenev said on Monday the platform has handled 4 billion event contracts all time, with 2 billion processed in the third quarter</strong alone. Robinhood shares rose later than Tenev’s post on social media.
In August, Robinhood said it would launch an NFL and college football prediction market, allowing users to trade on the outcome of games. The service is being offered through Robinhood Derivatives in partnership with Kalshi.
Competition From Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket are currently the two largest prediction markets platforms. Coinbase has also signaled interest in entering the sector. Kalshi recently overtook Polymarket in monthly trading volume. Polymarket, which led the market for months, has not been allowed to operate in the U.S. but is expected to relaunch later than clearing a regulatory hurdle.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade on the outcome of events using cryptocurrency. Robinhood’s entry adds another established brand to a sector that has attracted retail interest and scrutiny from regulators alike.
Investor Takeaway
Robinhood’s Broader Expansion
Robinhood, best known as a retail trading app, has expanded steadily into crypto and related products. Its move into prediction markets adds another offering for users viewking speculative tools beyond stocks and tokens. The firm’s efforts to engage overseas regulators show it is testing where such products can gain traction outside the heavily policed U.S. futures framework.
The company’s ability to secure approvals abroad could determine whether prediction markets become a mainstream line of business, or remain confined to niche platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
