The S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against All Odds
On 29 September, we noted that despite the ongoing US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and we highlighted several factors supporting continued growth.
Today, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning, the price climbed above 6 740 points. This underlines the sustained optimism among market participants. Today, this sentiment is supported by positive news related to the creators of ChatGPT.
According to media reports, OpenAI:
→ has achieved a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth approximately $6.6 billion;
→ is expanding its cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, a development expected to assist maintain the company’s rapid growth trajectory.
These developments mean that OpenAI’s successes are bolstering investor confidence ahead of the approaching earnings season.
Such positive news might have been tempered by the release of the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics remains closed due to the shutdown, delaying such releases.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Recent movements on the 4‑hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reinforce the prevailing optimism, as the price continues to fluctuate within a previously established ascending channel, highlighted in blue.
From a bullish perspective:
→ bulls demonstrated their strength by breaking through a local resistance level at 6 700, which later held as support (as indicated by an arrow);
→ local peaks allow for steeper ascending trendlines to be drawn, indicating momentum;
→ if the move from A→B is considered the main impulse and B→C the correction, then the correction appears shallow, as the upward reversal began at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, underlining strong demand.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, a zone where profit‑taking by long holders is common;
→ the current peak on the e‑mini S&P 500 chart slightly exceeds the October high (A), suggesting the possibility of a bearish divergence;
→ the lack of fresh news creates an “information vacuum” that could have a significant impact on sentiment if filled with negative developments.
Nonetheless, optimism persists. Tom Lee of Fundstrat forecasts that the S&P 500 index will surpass the 7 000 mark by the end of the year.
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