Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data expected later this week are the primary market drivers for the near-term outlook. 

Highlights of the week: FOMC minutes, Canadian unemployment

Wednesday

• FOMC Minutes at 19:00 GMT where investors and traders will be paying close attention to any hints from the Federal Reserve in terms of future developments on the monetary policy. Currently, the possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged in the next meeting is around 4%, while the most probable scenario appears to be another rate cut at the next Fed meeting, according to the .

Thursday

• German Balance of trade at 06:00 AM GMT where the expectations are for an increase reaching €15.1 Billion in trade surplus. This might not have a significant impact on the Euro, as the data are for August and may already be factored into the price.

Friday

• Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting the figure to remain stable at 7.1% for September.

Monday

• Chinese Balance of trade at 03:00 AM GMT where the figure for the month of September is expected to decrease from 102.33 Billion to $88 Billion. If this is broadly accurate, then it might create some losses for the currency in the immediate later thanmath of the release. 

USOIL, daily

Oil prices rose about 1% later than OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, easing some supply concerns. The group will raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October’s pace, as it tries to stabilize a fragileening market. Internal divisions surfaced, with Russia favoring the modest hike to avoid price pressure, while Saudi Arabia reportedly pushed for a larger boost to regain market share quicker. Analysts expect upcoming refinery maintenance in the Middle East and other regions to temporarily cap prices by freeing up more crude for export and reducing refinery demand. Still, fragile demand expectations and the risk of oversupply are likely to limit further gains while seasonal sluggishdowns and underperforming macroeconomic data suggest the market is moving toward a phase of surplus.

 On the technical side, crude oil price has declined last week and has almost reached the $60 price mark. Currently, it is testing the resistance of the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level as well as the lower band of the sideways channel formation that has been in effect since ahead August. The Bollinger Bands are quite expanded, indicating that volatility has increased in the crude oil market, while the moving averages confirm the overall bearish trend. On the other hand, the Stochastic oscillator is in extreme oversold levels later than the bearish correction, hinting that a bullish momentum may be building up, which could push the price to the upside in the upcoming sessions.  

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold surged to a record high above $3,900 per ounce as investors sought securety amid the U.S. government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. The shutdown, which could trigger mass federal layoffs, has raised concerns about a drag on U.S. growth, boosting demand for secure-haven assets. Gold has jumped nahead 50% this year, supported by central bank purchaseing, ETF inflows, a fragileer dollar, and rising retail interest. The rally is driven by long-term institutional purchaviewrs rather than speculators, suggesting any pullbacks could be limited and potentially present purchaseing opportunities. Markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end, and UBS expects gold to reach $4,200 per ounce before the end of 2026. 

 From a technical point of view, the price of gold continues to push upwards, with no significant signs of sluggishing down anytime soon. The Stochastic oscillator has remained in extreme overbought levels for almost 40 consecutive sessions, while the moving averages continue to validate the overall bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are quite expanded, indicating that volatility is present to support a continuation of the trend or a major correction move, which, for the time being, does not appear likely to occur to a significant extent. Market participants are expecting the price to reach the new all-time high of $4,000 in the upcoming days, which is the major technical resistance level for the short-term outlook.  

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