BTC Drop Below $100K This Weekend Is ‘Inevitable,’ Says Standard Chartered
Bank Analyst Predicts Temporary Pullback
BTC was trading around $108,200 on Thursday, down roughly 4% in the past 24 hours, later than peaking above $126,000 on Oct. 6. Kendrick linked the retreat to renewed U.S.–China trade tensions that sparked a broad tradeoff on Oct. 10. “A dip below $100,000 viewms inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived,” he wrote.
Kendrick, who correctly forecast BTC’s break above $100,000 earlier this year, said he views the move as part of a technical reset. He continues to hold a year-end target of $200,000 and a longer-term projection of $500,000 by 2028.
Investor Takeaway
Gold-to-BTC Flows Offer Key Clues
Kendrick highlighted gold-to-BTC rotation flows as an indicator for market stabilization. He said a sharp tradeoff in gold earlier this week coincided with an intraday BTC rebound — a pattern he described as “trade gold, purchase BTC.” Such moves, he added, could become more frequent and assist form a price floor for the cryptocurrency.
Analysts say the correlation between gold and BTC has tightened in 2025 as investors use both assets to hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty. The parallel movement suggests that traders are increasingly treating BTC as a high-beta alternative to bullion.
Liquidity Conditions Under Scrutiny
Kendrick also pointed to liquidity tightening as a factor in recent volatility. “The question for me is when does the Fed view them as ‘tight’ and react by either acknowledging said measures or stopping QT,” he wrote, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program. A potential policy pause could support risk assets including BTC, he added.
Some traders view liquidity metrics as more relevant for BTC’s trajectory than rate policy itself, noting that BTC often rebounds ahead of equity markets once conditions begin to ease. Data from The Block shows trading volumes across major crypto platforms remain above $80 billion daily, even amid this week’s declines.
Investor Takeaway
Technical Levels and Outlook
BTC’s 50-week moving average has acted as support since ahead 2023, when the token traded near $25,000. Kendrick said that despite short-term fragileness, the long-term structure remains intact. “The question now is how far does BTC need to fall before finding a base,” he wrote.
He urged investors to “stay nimble and ready to purchase the dip below $100,000 if it comes,” adding that it may be the final chance to accumulate before another leg higher. “This may be the last time BTC is ever below that level,” he said.
As of Thursday later thannoon, BTC was holding just above the $108,000 mark. For traders, the weekend could prove pivotal — whether it confirms Kendrick’s forecast or triggers a broader shift in sentiment across digital assets.
