Kalshi’s Rapid Repricing: From $5B to $12B Valuation in Two Weeks

What did Bloomberg report?

U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi is fielding investment proposals from venture firms that would value the company at up to $12 billion, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the talks. The approaches come less than two weeks later than Kalshi raised more than $300 million at a $5 billion valuation. Bloomberg said some investors have discussed funding at “$10 billion to $12 billion or higher.”

The jump reflects a sharp rerating of event-trading venues that operate under U.S. oversight. Kalshi runs a federally regulated platform where participants can trade contracts tied to outcomes across politics, macro data, and other real-world events. Fresh proposals suggest investors are betting that regulated prediction markets can scale into mainstream finance and sports, drawing flow from retail apps and institutional partners.

Investor Takeaway

Why are investors bidding up prediction markets?

Two forces are in play: regulatory clearance and distribution. Kalshi is U.S.-regulated, a status that assists unlock partnerships with brokerages, leagues, and media. On distribution, event contracts are spreading into sports and mainstream apps, creating new customer funnels and revenue lines. The model resembles options-style micro-wagers on data releases or game outcomes, with venues earning on fees, spread capture, and, in some cases, market-making.

Valuation talk also reflects a broader funding race where scale and licenses are scarce assets. With few U.S.-permitted venues, investors are paying up for entities that can onboard large partners rapidly and withstand policy scrutiny. Near-term growth hinges on converting media attention and league tie-ups into active users and deeper markets beyond politics.

Investor Takeaway

How do rivals and partners factor in?

Rival platform Polymarket said Intercontinental platform would invest up to $2 billion at a $9 billion post-money valuation, and its chief executive, Shayne Coplan, recently said the venue “has been given the green light to go live in” the U.S. later than halting operations there in 2022. On Wednesday, Polymarket added it will serve as the designated clearinghouse for DraftKings if the sportsbook launches a predictions market following its Railbird acquisition. The Wall Street Journal reported the National Hockey League has reached multi-year licensing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi, meanwhile, is building sports distribution with consumer platforms. In August, Robinhood said it would launch a pro and college football prediction market where users can wager on game outcomes via a Kalshi partnership. Kalshi’s Head of Crypto, John Wang, told The Block the company’s market “should be available on every large crypto application and platform within the next 12 months.” If executed, that would place event contracts alongside spot and derivatives rails, widening liquidity and use cases.

The competitive picture is tightening: ICE’s interest around Polymarket, Robinhood’s tie-in with Kalshi, and league licenses for both suggest multiple distribution tracks are opening at once. For investors, the question is whether venue economics—take rates, hedging costs, and capital efficiency—can support the step-up in valuation across the cohort.

What’s next for U.S.-regulated markets?

Funding talks at higher marks often precede product expansion. For Kalshi, the near-term pipeline includes sports, macro, and potentially platform integrations that place event contracts in front of crypto-native users. The strategy leans on U.S. compliance to win institutional partnerships while tapping retail-first channels for scale. Execution risk remains: contract design, limits, and market quality will determine whether open interest deepens or fragments across venues.

Rivals are moving rapidly. Polymarket’s potential ICE backing, DraftKings clearing link, and league licenses point to a land-grab for credibility and flow. If two or three operators secure durable distribution, the space could mirror options or DFS playbooks: a handful of dominant venues with deep liquidity, supplemented by niche markets. In that scenario, valuations near $10–12 billion require sustained user growth, higher average contract values, and a roadmap into data partnerships and media rights.

For now, investors are paying for speed to scale. With new cash, league poorges, and broker integrations, event trading is pushing toward a mainstream footprint. Whether that warrants a doubling of Kalshi’s private mark within weeks will come down to signed distribution, regulatory stability, and how rapidly contracts convert new users into recurring volume.