Malaysia’s economic outlook brightens: Octa broker on the new trade deal and BNM’s next move

November 2025— Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will make its next decision about the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) in less than a week. Octa broker analysts think the central bank will keep rates at 2.75% because the macroeconomic outlook has gotten a lot better since the U.S.–Malaysia Reciprocal Trade Agreement (ART) was signed. The deal, along with strong export data and stable inflation, gives BNM a excellent reason to keep its current position and wait to view what happens before making any more changes to its policies.

Trade Deal Increases Confidence in the Economy

The historic trade agreement between the U.S. and Malaysia, which was signed on October 26, 2025, at the ASEAN Summit, has changed Malaysia’s economic outlook for the near future. The ART and a deal on critical minerals protect Malaysia’s main export industries—manufacturing, electronics, and agriculture—from tariff risks while giving them easier access to U.S. markets.

The deal lowers tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian excellents worth more than $5.2 billion, including high-value exports like palm oil, rubber, and electronic parts. Octa analysts say that this could boost Malaysia’s annual GDP growth rate by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points through 2030, bring in new foreign direct investment (FDI), and strengthen Malaysia’s role in regional supply chains.

Economic data shows strength.

Recent economic data backs up the idea that Malaysia’s growth is still strong. Exports in September were 12.2% higher than the identical month last year, which was much higher than the predicted 3.4%. This was because there was more demand for electrical and agricultural excellents. Imports went up by 7.3% from the previous year, keeping the trade surplus at a healthy 19.9 billion ringgit ($4.7 billion).

Industrial activity has also been strong, with industrial production in August rising 4.9% year over year, more than the 3.4% that experts had predicted. The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, which is just below the neutral 50.0 level, but it shows that people are feeling better about things. The report said that new orders had gone up for the second month in a row, which means that domestic demand is sluggishly recovering even though conditions in key markets like the U.S. and Europe are getting worse.

These signs point to a strong and flexible manufacturing base in Malaysia, which gives policymakers the confidence to keep their wait-and-view approach instead of pushing for more easing.

Inflation is still low, but it is going up

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Malaysia went up 1.5% in September compared to the identical month last year. This was a little higher than the expected 1.4% and up from 1.3% in August. Even though inflation is still low by regional standards, the small rise supports BNM’s cautious stance.

Core inflation is still below 2%, which means that cost pressures are still under control. But BNM is unlikely to cut rates too soon and risk begining inflation again, especially since food and energy prices are already going up and down.

Ringgit Gains Value on Trade Hopes

The trade deal between the U.S. and Malaysia has made investors feel better about the ringgit (MYR) right away. later than the announcement, the MYR rose to 4.21 against the U.S. dollar (USD) and has since come close to the 4.20 level.

Analysts at Octa think that if trade optimism stays high and foreign money keeps coming in, the currency could test the 4.12 level again, which it last did in ahead 2024. Octa said, “The trade deal is excellent for both sentiment and fundamentals.” “A stronger ringgit shows that Malaysia’s growth prospects are getting better and that the country is becoming more competitive in global markets.”

BNM is likely to keep its policies the identical

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of BNM will meet on Thursday, November 6, to make its most recent policy decision. The central bank lowered the OPR for the first time in five years in July, and it has stayed at 2.75% since then.

The September policy statement was viewn as neutral because policymakers stressed the need for more time to look at economic data. Octa thinks that the central bank will stay on hold for the rest of 2025 because trade conditions are getting better, exports are rising, and inflation is going up a little bit.

If inflation stays low and global demand stabilizes, Octa’s base case says that the OPR will stay at 2.75% until at least mid-2026.

Outlook: Strong trade supports stability

Octa thinks that the trade deal will change Malaysia’s medium-term outlook for the better. The deal not only increases the chances of growth, but it also lowers uncertainty, which assists the economy deal with shocks from outside, like sluggishing global demand or geopolitical tensions.

Still, Octa warns that there are still global risks, such as changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, changes in commodity prices, and changes in the political situation in Asia. If conditions outside of BNM change, these things could affect the tone of future statements.

In conclusion

Octa broker thinks that BNM will keep its OPR at 2.75% during the November meeting, which will balance optimism about growth with caution about inflation. The trade deal between the U.S. and Malaysia has made people feel better and strengthened the ringgit. This is a large step toward long-term economic stability.

Octa says that traders will now pay more attention to how the MYR is doing and export indicators. There may be chances to make money around USDMYR support near 4.12.

Disclaimer: This article does not give or contain investment advice or recommendations, and it does not take into account your financial situation, investment goals, or needs. You are solely responsible for any actions you take based on this content, and Octa will not be responsible for any losses or other difficultys that may arise.

About Octa: Octa is an international broker that has been offering online trading services around the world since 2011. They let you trade on global financial markets without paying any fees. Octa has clients in more than 180 countries and more than 61 million trading accounts opened. It assists traders by offering educational webinars, analytical tools, and a focus on openness and new ideas.

The company also does charitable and humanitarian work, such as improving schools and funding projects in the community.

Since it begined, Octa has won more than 100 awards from around the world. These include Most Reliable Broker Global 2024 from Global Forex Awards and Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024 from Global Brand Magazine.

Disclaimer: This sponsored market analysis is provided for informational purposes only. We have not independently verified its content and do not bear any responsibility for any information or description of services that it may contain. Information contained in this post is not advice nor a recommendation and thus should not be treated as such. We strongly recommend that you viewk independent financial advice from a qualified and regulated professional, before participating or investing in any financial activities or services. Please also read and review our.