Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of examines USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data expected later this week are the primary market drivers for the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: RBA & BoE interest rate decisions, Canadian unemployment rate

Tuesday

• Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision at 03:30 AM GMT, where the market is expecting that the interest rates will remain stable at 3.60%. In the event, however, that we have a surprise hike or cut by the Reserve Bank, then it might create minor gains or losses for the Aussie Dollar, respectively.

Wednesday

• US Services PMI at 15:00 GMT for the month of October. The consensus is for a one-point increase, reaching 51. This might be rather bullish news for the dollar, as it would indicate that the services sector in the United States has continued to expand for the last five months.

Thursday

• Australian Balance of trade at 12:30 AM GMT, where the expectations are for an increase reaching A$3.85 billion in trade surplus. This might not have a significant effect on the Australian Dollar, as the data are for September and may already be priced in.

• Bank of England interest rate decision at 12:00 PM GMT. The general expectation is that the central bank will hold its rate stable at 4% but in the event that we witness another rate cut, it could put some pressure to the quid in many of its pairs, especially against the US dollar whereas in the unlikely event of a hike it might give some support on the British pound in the later thanmath of the release.

Friday

• Canadian unemployment rate at 13:30 GMT. The market is expecting a slight increase on the figure of around 0.1% for the month of October. This might have a minor negative effect on the loonie if the expectations are confirmed.

USOIL, daily

climbed later than OPEC+ announced a modest output hike for next month, followed by a production pause through the first quarter of next year. The move signals the group’s acknowledgment of a growing supply surplus in 2026, despite earlier price declines due to concerns about oversupply. While tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers have added some uncertainty to supply forecasts, overall market conditions remain skewed toward excess production. Additional risks include disruptions from a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil facility and political instability in Nigeria, which could affect output and shipping flows.

On the technical side, the crude oil price has retested the major technical resistance at $62 and corrected to the downside since. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the daily range. The Bollinger Bands are still expanded, indicating that volatility in the crude oil market remains high, while the Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, suggesting a potential bearish correction in the upcoming sessions.  If this becomes reality, the first area of potential support may be viewn around the $60 level, which is the psychological support of the round number. The second area of support might be found around $58, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Gold-dollar, daily

steadied near the $4,000 level as traders assessed the U.S.–China trade truce, which eased immediate tensions but failed to dispel long-term concerns about economic rivalry. The agreement offered temporary relief to markets, though lingering uncertainty kept demand for secure-haven assets intact.

Gold has retreated from record highs, pressured by reduced expectations of further Fed rate cuts and recent outflows from gold-backed ETFs. Still, the metal remains up sharply for the year, supported by strong central bank purchases and continued investor interest in portfolio protection amid global uncertainty.

Additionally, China’s decision to cut tax rebates for gold retailers has sparked concern over reduced demand in one of the world’s largest gold markets. The policy change limits the value-added tax offset on gold sales, pressuring local jewelry makers and weighing on sentiment. While China’s move may curb near-term consumption, overall bullish sentiment in global markets remains intact.

From a technical perspective, the price of gold has continued its bearish correction momentum and, for the time being, has not managed to break below the $4,000 mark. The moving averages continue to validate an overall bullish trend, despite the recent correction, while the Stochastic oscillator has been pushed to extreme oversold levels. This could suggest that the bearish momentum might be losing some steam, and a resumption to the upside might be next in play. If this scenario unfolds, the first area of major resistance may be observed around $4,200, which corresponds to the psychological resistance of the round number and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

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