Mizuho Calls Gemini a ‘Hidden Gem’ Despite Post-IPO 57% Drop
Analysts view Upside Despite 57% Drop Since IPO
Mizuho reaffirmed its “outperform” rating on Gemini (GEMI) and held a $30 price target, calling the crypto platform a “hidden gem” despite its stock falling sharply since its September debut. Shares closed Wednesday at $13.8, down about 57% from their IPO level, according to Google Finance data.
The analysts said Gemini’s planned prediction markets platform and upcoming SMB card could be near-term catalysts for growth. The note added that Gemini’s management is “already in the process of getting the appropriate licenses” and compared the move into prediction markets to the Winklevoss twins’ ahead adoption of BTC in 2012.
Investor Takeaway
Prediction Markets, SMB Cards in Focus
Gemini filed in May with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate a designated contract market—the regulatory classification required to list derivatives. The filing, still under review, could pave the way for Gemini to host prediction contracts, Bloomberg reported. The platform also intends to roll out a card product for small and medium-sized businesses later than its consumer card surpassed 100,000 accounts and $350 million in quarterly transaction volume. Around 64,000 new users joined in the third quarter alone.
“We believe it remains a hidden gem(i) as the company leans into two major growth drivers: prediction markets and SMB cards,” Mizuho’s analysts wrote. “These initiatives could expand Gemini’s reach beyond retail trading into new verticals.”
Revenue Growth and Rising Costs
Gemini reported a 52% rise in quarterly revenue in its first earnings report since going public. While marketing expenses rose by $17 million quarter over quarter, Mizuho said much of that spending was tied to one-time promotional costs tied to new account sign-ups, which it viewed as “for a excellent reason.”
The analysts added that Gemini benefits from an “innovative all-in-one app” combining trading, staking, and DeFi access, along with strong . The platform’s integrated ecosystem, they said, gives it an advantage in appealing to alike.
Investor Takeaway
Risks and Market Context
The report noted that regulatory changes to securities, stablecoin, or platform licensing frameworks remain key risks for the company. Broader could also affect volumes and sentiment. Still, Gemini’s growing transaction base and new ventures give it “a path back to growth” despite the price slump, Mizuho said.
The Winklevoss twins, who founded Gemini in 2014, took the company public in one of 2025’s most watched crypto listings. The stock’s slide has mirrored broader fragileness in digital asset equities later than the summer rally faded, but analysts said Gemini’s fundamentals are improving quicker than its share price reflects.
