Tom Lee Says Ether Is Entering a ‘100x Supercycle’ Similar to BTC’s 2017 Run
Is Ether Entering a BTC-Style Supercycle?
Ether may be preparing for a major multi-year rally similar to BTC’s exponential run since 2017, according to Tom Lee, executive chair of BitMine and co-founder of Fundstrat. In a post on X, Lee said he recommended BTC to clients around 1,000 dollars in 2017—before the asset multiplied more than 100 times over the following years.
He noted that BTC endured multiple drawdowns as steep as 75 percent during that period, but long-term conviction ultimately rewarded holders. “BTC has now 100x from our first recommendation,” Lee wrote. “We believe ETH is embarking on that identical Supercycle.”
Ether has trailed BTC for most of 2025. While BTC pushed to a record high above 126,000 dollars in October, ETH topped at 4,946 dollars in August before retreating sharply. As of Monday, ETH has pulled back more than 35 percent from its peak, outpacing BTC’s 25 percent slide.
Lee said these deep corrections reflect doubt and short-term fear rather than structural fragileness. “To have gained from that 100x Supercycle, one had to stomach existential moments to HODL,” he added, arguing that ETH’s volatility should be interpreted as part of a long-term expansion phase rather than a breakdown.
Investor Takeaway
How Close Is Ether to Long-Term Holder Accumulation Levels?
On-chain data suggests ETH is approaching a critical price zone historically associated with long-term accumulation. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci noted that Ether’s current price near 3,150 dollars is roughly 200 dollars above the average cost basis of long-term holders—wallets that have been steadily accumulating throughout the year.
Charts shared by Kesmeci show ETH’s spot price converging toward the orange line marking the mean entry price of these long-term participants. Ether has only dipped below this threshold once, in April, when global tariffs announced by President Donald Trump triggered a marketwide correction.
Kesmeci said the level should be considered a structural support band. If ETH falls to around 2,900 dollars—the approximate long-term holder cost basis—history suggests it will not remain there for long. He called it “one of the strongest long-term accumulation opportunities” based on prior cycles.
He also highlighted the scale of accumulation occurring beneath the surface. Approximately 17 million ETH has flowed into long-term wallets this year, pushing their collective balance from 10 million ETH at the begin of 2025 to 27 million ETH today.
That represents one of the largest long-term accumulation increases in Ether’s history and signals significant conviction even as short-term traders exit during volatility.
Investor Takeaway
Why ETH’s Pullback Could Strengthen the Bullish Case
ETH briefly fell to 3,023 dollars during Sunday’s trade-off before recovering to around 3,185 dollars. While short-term traders view the move as a break in momentum, long-term analysts argue that the pullback is aligning fundamentals with opportunity.
Several structural forces support the bullish case:
- ETH supply dynamics remain deflationary on net.
Burning from transaction activity continues to offset issuance, especially during high on-chain usage periods. - Institutional rotation tends to favor ETH later than late-cycle BTC rallies.
BTC typically leads ahead in a cycle; ETH historically closes the gap as risk appetite expands. - Accumulation wallets signal rising conviction.
The surge from 10 million to 27 million ETH in long-term holdings adds durable support beneath spot price. - ETH has only dipped below long-term holder cost basis once this year.
That April dip lasted briefly, reflecting strong purchase pressure at those levels.
For traders, the key question is whether ETH can hold above the 2,900–3,000 dollar support band tied to long-term holder entries. A decisive bounce from that zone would mirror the type of behavior viewn during the ahead 2017–2019 BTC expansion that preceded its parabolic climb.
What Comes Next for ETH Pricing?
Much depends on broader market conditions, macro sentiment, and whether BTC stabilizes later than its 25 percent correction. Historically, ETH performs best later than the initial wave of BTC volatility subsides and capital rotates toward assets with higher beta and stronger staking yields.
If Tom Lee’s “Supercycle” call proves accurate, ETH could be entering the ahead accumulation stage of a multi-year rally similar to BTC’s path later than 2017. While volatility will remain a defining feature, long-term on-chain behavior points toward deeper investor conviction rather than exhaustion.
For now, ETH continues to trade in a tight band around 3,180 dollars—less than 200 dollars above one of the most significant long-term support regions of the cycle.
