BTC: Options Market Shows $85K Put Overtakes $140K Call in Open Interest
What Is Driving BTC’s Slide Toward the Low-$90,000 Zone?
BTC is clinging to the low-$90,000 range as retail investors accelerate tradeing and platform-traded funds view heavy outflows, according to new research from BRN and Derive.xyz. Market depth remains thin, liquidity is fragileening and downside hedging has surged into the final stretch of the year.
BTC traded defensively above 91,300 dollars later than another fragile daily close, with fear indicators at extreme levels. Analysts describe the current flow regime as sharply divided: short-term holders are exiting aggressively, while whale wallets continue to accumulate at discounted prices.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said BTC sits at a “crossroad” where long-duration investors are adding exposure even as retail traders lock in sizable losses. Roughly 31,800 BTC recently moved to platforms at a loss, he noted. Meanwhile, wallets have risen by 2.2%, the quickest increase in four months.
The backdrop is complicated by persistent ETF redemptions. saw 373 million dollars in outflows on Tuesday, including the largest single-day redemption in the history of BlackRock’s iShares BTC Trust.
Investor Takeaway
Macro Uncertainty Keeps Markets One Headline Away From Volatility
The macro environment is providing no clear anchor. signaled openness to a December rate cut, but diverging expectations among Fed officials have left markets directionless.
Misir said traders are now positioned for sharp reactions to incoming data releases, with both easing and delayed-cut scenarios “live” into year-end. That uncertainty is feeding volatility rather than containing it.
The sharpest shift is visible in options markets. Dr. Sean Dawson of Derive.xyz said both short-term and long-term implied volatility have risen together for the first time in months, forming what he describes as a “new volatility regime.”
Key metrics highlight the defensive positioning:
- Thirty-day implied volatility: rising from 41% to 49%
- Six-month implied volatility: rising from 46% to 49%
- Put skew: falling from –2.9% to –5.3% as traders pay more for downside hedges
Options markets now assign:
- 50% probability that BTC ends the year below $90,000
- 30% chance BTC finishes 2025 above $100,000
Ether markets mirror the identical defensive structure, with traders assigning a 50% chance that ETH ends the year under 2,900 dollars.
Options Markets Flip From Bullish Euphoria to Bearish Dominance
The shift in sentiment is even clearer on Deribit. Last year, traders were aggressively purchaseing calls at 100,000, 120,000 and 140,000-dollar strikes. The 140,000 call was the most popular contract on Deribit for nahead a year.
Now, the landscape has flipped. The 140,000 call’s open interest has fallen to 1.63 billion dollars. The 85,000 put has taken the top spot at 2.05 billion dollars, with puts at 80,000 and 90,000 dollars also surpassing major call levels.
Jean-David Pequignot, at Deribit, said front-end implied volatility sits near 50% and the curve shows a “heavy put skew” of 5% to 6.5% for downside protection. Short-dated puts between 84,000 and 80,000 dollars have viewn the strongest trading volumes.
Dawson said December 26 expiries now hold a “sizeable concentration” of open interest around the 80,000-dollar strike, indicating traders expect a turbulent end to 2025.
Investor Takeaway
Is the Cycle Broken or Is This a Short-Term Reset?
Despite the fear, 21Shares argues the current fragileness is a sharp reset, not a full cycle break. The firm said conditions resemble previous consolidation phases rather than bear-market reversals.
In a November 18 note, 21Shares highlighted:
- Nahead $4 billion in long liquidations this week
- Thin spot liquidity intensifying price swings
- A liquidity vacuum tied to U.S. fiscal dynamics
The firm also pointed to structural supports:
- tradeing pressure from long-term holders is easing
- Whale accumulation is rising
- Global liquidity may improve following the U.S. government shutdown reanswer
21Shares outlined 98,000 to 100,000 dollars as the main resistance band and 85,000 dollars as major support, with deeper demand emerging between 75,000 and 80,000 dollars.
“Cycle structure remains intact,” the analysts wrote. “If regains the 100K level, the broader uptrend can resume.”
