Polymarket Eyes $9B, Kalshi $5B Valuation in Fresh Capital Raises
What the New Valuations Signal
Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the most prominent prediction market platforms, are reportedly viewking fresh capital raises at valuations of $9 billion and $5 billion, respectively. The Information reported that Polymarket has entertained offers valuing it as high as $9 billion—up sharply from its $1 billion raise earlier this summer. Business Insider separately said at least one investor floated a term sheet valuing Polymarket at $10 billion.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is said to be nearing a new round at a $5 billion valuation, more than double the $2 billion figure from its last raise just months ago. If completed, both raises would mark an extraordinary re-rating for the sector, reflecting growing investor conviction in prediction markets as mainstream financial products.
Investor Takeaway
How the Platforms Differ
Despite similar headlines, Polymarket and Kalshi operate with distinct models. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. entity, requiring dollar deposits and traditional KYC, positioning itself as a compliant, institutional-ready platform. Polymarket, by contrast, runs on Polygon with USDC settlement, allowing pseudonymous participation and global reach. It has been given the green light to relaunch in the U.S. by the CFTC, opening the door to regulated growth.
Activity on the two platforms has narrowed, with Kalshi logging $875 million in August trading volume versus Polymarket’s $1 billion. While volumes are similar, their user bases diverge: Kalshi targets regulated retail and institutional flows, while Polymarket thrives among crypto-native traders viewking broader event coverage.
What’s Fueling the Surge in Prediction Markets?
The renewed investor interest comes amid a broader resurgence in prediction markets. 2025 has already viewn $216 million raised across 11 funding deals, compared with $80 million in 2024 and $60 million in 2021, according to The Block. That surge reflects growing demand for new forms of speculative finance at the intersection of crypto and regulated markets.
Major investors back the platforms: Polymarket counts Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund among its investors, while Kalshi is supported by Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Partnerships are also expanding. X (formerly Twitter) named Polymarket its official prediction partner, while Kalshi teamed with Robinhood to broaden access. Elsewhere, Crypto.com and Underdog are launching sports prediction markets in 16 U.S. states, while Coinbase is exploring its own product.
Investor Takeaway
What’s Next for Polymarket and Kalshi?
With valuations approaching $10 billion, the platforms face the challenge of converting hype into sustainable growth. Regulatory clarity will remain critical: Kalshi’s CFTC status provides a moat, while Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch tests the appetite for decentralized-style products under regulated oversight. Volumes will be closely watched, particularly as U.S. election season and global sporting events provide high-profile liquidity opportunities.
More broadly, the sector’s rise mirrors crypto’s ongoing push into mainstream finance. With participation spreading from pseudonymous wallets to regulated brokerages, prediction markets may become the next major battleground for platforms, fintechs, and investors viewking exposure to real-world event speculation.
