Arthur Hayes Predicts Equity Price Discovery Will Shift to 24/7 Crypto Perpetuals

Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, that over the next few years, equity price discovery will move from traditional stock platforms to crypto permanent markets that are open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

He says that when liquidity, leverage, and regulatory support all come together around perpetual swaps, older platforms will have to adjust or risk becoming less significant.

Hayes views this change as a structural progression rather than a niche trend. He views perpetuals as the main place where traders will progressively form opinions on significant market benchmarks. He thinks that the instruments that make up most of the derivatives flows will also set the prices for global stocks.

Why Perpetual Swaps Are significant

Hayes says that -style perpetual swaps have changed the way people trade cryptocurrencies by putting all the liquidity into one contract that doesn’t expire and closely follows spot prices while allowing for enormous leverage.

He says that this system, which is backed by socialized loss mechanisms and insurance funds, allows ordinary traders a lot of liquidity and exposure while limiting their legal options mostly to their posted margin.

Hayes says that this architecture makes perpetuals work better than regular dated futures, which have limited trading hours and spread liquidity across numerous expiries. He thinks that perpetuals are better for a society where information and money are always moving.

Hayes uses on-chain instances to support his theory. He points to Hyperliquid’s HIP-3, a permissionless protocol that lets a company called XYZ establish a 100 equities perpetual that already has significant daily transactions. He views this as ahead proof that equity-linked perpetuals may work on crypto-native platforms without the assist of traditional middlemen.

He thinks that equity perpetuals could become the main product by 2026, with both centralized platforms and decentralized protocols trying to list and scale them as rapidly as possible. He thinks this competitive dynamic will accelerate the flow of liquidity from listed futures to crypto-based contracts.

Trump’s Regulatory Tailwinds

Hayes adds that the momentum behind perpetuals stems from a friendlier regulatory environment in the U.S., which he says began in 2025 under President Donald Trump. This was especially true later than years of enforcement activities following the crash and his personal case with the CFTC. He says the current situation has enabled new derivative items to be tested in a sandbox-like setting.

Hayes said this position is pushing global regulators to follow U.S. policy, giving places like SGX and other international platforms the confidence to consider permanent listings.

and other traditional companies are also preparing to offer perpetual contracts. This shows that mainstream finance is now actively investigating crypto-inspired structures.

Perpetuals Vs. Old Futures

Hayes thinks that by the end of the 2020s, the largest derivatives on U.S. benchmarks like the and Nasdaq 100 would be perpetual contracts traded on crypto platforms rather than futures listed on CME and other established platforms. 

He says that traditional clearinghouses are hampered by insufficient capital, strict limits on retail leverage, and trading hours that don’t align with markets that are open all the time.

Perpetual swaps, on the other hand, allow traders to deposit less collateral while maintaining significant exposure. This means traders don’t have to keep large amounts of money on centralized platforms later than a string of high-profile hacks and industry failures.