STH-SOPR vs LTH-SOPR: What BTC Holder Behavior Reveals About Price

In on-chain analysis, few indicators capture investor behavior as clahead as SOPR. The assists determine whether BTC holders are tradeing at a profit or a loss.

When split into Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) and Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR), the metric becomes even more valuable for interpreting market sentiment and identifying potential price direction.

This article breaks down the difference between STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR, explains how each behaves during diverse market phases, and highlights what they currently suggest for BTC’s price structure.

key Takeaways

• STH-SOPR reflects the behavior of BTC holders who have owned their coins for less than 155 days and reacts rapidly to price changes.

• LTH-SOPR tracks the actions of long-term investors who have held BTC for more than 155 days and provides insight into broader market conviction.

• When either SOPR metric stays above 1, holders are tradeing at a profit, while values below 1 indicate that coins are being sold at a loss.

• A divergence between short-term and long-term holder behavior can indicate fragileening momentum or the formation of a local market top.

• STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR together offer a clearer view of BTC’s price structure and the strength behind its current trend.

What is SOPR?

SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, measures the profitability of coins at the time they are spent on the blockchain. It compares the price at which a specific output was last moved to the price at which it is currently being spent.

• A SOPR value above 1 means coins are being sold at a profit.

• A SOPR value below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss.

• A SOPR value around 1 suggests break-even tradeing.

By itself, SOPR reflects the average profit or loss being realized across all transactions in the network. However, when segmented by holding duration, the becomes more actionable.

What is STH-SOPR?

STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder SOPR) tracks coins that have been held for less than 155 days. These coins belong mainly to newer market participants and speculative traders.

STH behavior is typically more reactive to price movement, making STH-SOPR a strong indicator of short-term sentiment.

Key characteristics of STH-SOPR:

• Highly sensitive to rapid price changes

• Spikes during strong rallies as short-term traders take profit

• Falls below 1 during corrections and panic tradeing

• Acts as dynamic support or resistance around the 1.0 level

During a bullish trend, STH-SOPR often stays above 1. Pullbacks tend to find support when the metric approaches the 1 zone because short-term holders are less willing to trade at a loss.

When STH-SOPR breaks below 1 and stays there, it usually reflects fragileening demand and fading momentum.

What is LTH-SOPR?

LTH-SOPR (Long-Term Holder SOPR) measures coins held for more than 155 days. These coins belong to investors with stronger conviction and long-term outlooks.

LTHs are less sensitive to daily volatility. Their behavior often defines macro market cycles.

Key characteristics of LTH-SOPR:

• More stable than STH-SOPR

• Normally stays above 1 in healthy bull cycles

• Drops close to or below 1 near market bottoms

• Peaks near cycle tops as distribution begins

When long-term holders begin realizing significant profits, LTH-SOPR climbs. However, consistent spikes at very high levels can signal that smart money is distributing into strength.

A sustained drop toward 1 or below 1 historically aligns with accumulation zones and late-stage bear markets.

Key Differences Between STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR

Holding period: STH-SOPR tracks coins held for less than 155 days, while LTH-SOPR focuses on coins held for more than 155 days.

Behavior: STH-SOPR reflects more reactive and emotionally driven decisions, whereas LTH-SOPR represents patient and more strategic behavior.

Primary use case: Traders use STH-SOPR to analyze short-term trends and market reactions, while LTH-SOPR is better suited for identifying broader cycle phases and macro-level shifts.

Volatility: STH-SOPR is more volatile because short-term holders respond rapidly to price changes. LTH-SOPR remains relatively stable since long-term holders are less affected by short-term fluctuations.

Market role: STH-SOPR is largely a momentum indicator, while LTH-SOPR acts as an anchor for the overall market structure.

How STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR Affect BTC Price

When STH-SOPR remains consistently above 1 and LTH-SOPR stays elevated, it indicates that short-term holders are taking profits while long-term holders maintain their positions.

This combination supports bullish continuation, as it suggests strong demand and sustained conviction across both groups.

If LTH-SOPR begins to spike rapidly while STH-SOPR also shows aggressive profit-taking, it often indicates that experienced investors are distributing into market strength.

Although price may continue rising for a period, momentum tends to fragileen under the surface, which increases the risk of a local top forming.

During bearish conditions, STH-SOPR typically drops and holds below 1, showing that newer participants are tradeing at a loss. If LTH-SOPR also trends toward or below 1, it indicates that even long-term holders are capitulating. This environment aligns with deeper corrections or extended bear market phases.

In potential recovery phases, STH-SOPR begins to climb back toward the 1 level as tradeing pressure eases among short-term holders.

At the identical time, LTH-SOPR tends to flatten and stabilize. This behavior usually emerges during consolidation periods and often signals the ahead stages of accumulation ahead of a trend reversal.

Conclusion

STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR provide two essential perspectives on BTC’s on-chain health. One reflects emotion and short-term reaction, while the other reflects discipline and long-term strategy.

When both metrics align in a positive direction, it strengthens the case for a bullish continuation. When they diverge, caution is warranted.

For analysts and investors viewking an edge, understanding this relationship is not optional. It is fundamental to interpreting the real story behind BTC’s price action.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What does a SOPR value above 1 mean?
A value above 1 means BTC holders are tradeing their coins at a profit compared to the price at which they were acquired.

2. Why is the 155-day threshold significant?
The 155-day mark separates short-term traders from long-term investors based on historical patterns in holding behavior across market cycles.

3. Can STH-SOPR be used for short-term trading decisions?
Yes. Traders often watch how STH-SOPR behaves around the 1.0 level to gauge short-term sentiment and potential support or resistance.

4. What does it mean when LTH-SOPR spikes?
A sharp increase usually indicates that long-term holders are realizing gains, which can be a sign of distribution near a market top.

5. Should SOPR be used alone when analyzing BTC price?
No. It works best when combined with other on-chain and technical indicators such as MVRV, platform flows, volume, and trendlines.