Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, where economic data expected later this week are the primary market drivers for the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: US manufacturing & services PMI, EU inflation, Canada unemployment, US core PCE

Monday

• US manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT. The consensus is for a decrease from 48.7 to 48.6 points. If these expectations are correct, then it would indicate that the manufacturing sector in the United  States is contracting and would probably affect the Dollar negatively in the short term.

Tuesday

• European flash inflation rate at 10:00 AM GMT. The rate for November is expected to increase to 2.2%, up from the previous reading of 2.1%. This could affect the Euro against its pairs at least in the short term.

Wednesday

• US Services PMI at 15:00 GMT for the month of November. The consensus is for a slight decrease of 0.3 points, resulting in a score of 52.1. This might be rather bullish news for the dollar, as it would indicate that the services sector in the United States is still expanding for the entire year of 2025 so far.

Friday

• Canadian unemployment rate at 13:30 GMT. The market is expecting a slight increase on the figure of around 0.1% for the month of November. This might have a minor negative effect on the loonie if the expectations are confirmed.
• US PCE price index at 15:00 GMT. The figure is generally expected to increase by 0.1% in September. Since the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on excellents and services in the U.S , it consists of one of the main gauges used by the Federal Reserve to assist them in their monetary policy so any significant deviation from these expectations could probably spark volatility in the majority of the Dollar pairs.

USOIL, daily

climbed about 1.5% at the ahead market open, driven by OPEC+ confirming it will halt production increases in the first quarter and by fresh geopolitical risks. The group stressed it’s ready to pause or reverse voluntary output moves as needed, mainly due to concerns about a potential supply oversupply risk.

Tension rose later than the U.S. floated the idea of restricting Venezuelan airspace, adding uncertainty to supply from a major producer, and this risk was assisting support prices.

In Europe, sentiment flipped again as the Russia-Ukraine situation worsened. Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian refinery, an aviation plant, and two sanctioned tankers headed to a Black Sea port. Hopes for a peace deal faded, reducing expectations that large volumes of sanctioned Russian oil might hit the market soon. Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Florida, with Washington describing the talks as productive but emphasizing that the war is far from over.

On the technical side, the crude oil price extended its bullish correction later than rebounding from the lower band of the Bollinger Bands last week. Currently, the price is trading around a very strong technical resistance level, which consists of the 50-day simple moving average, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the weekly range, and the psychological resistance of the round number, $60. The Bollinger Bands are still quite expanded, indicating volatility in the crude oil market, while the Stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought levels, but has not yet reached them In the upcoming sessions there might be a continuation of the recent bullish momentum and if that theory holds then the first potential area of resistance might be viewn around $61 and a second area around $62. The first area consists of 50% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level, the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, and the 100-day simple moving average area. Meanwhile, $62 represents the medium-term resistance area of price reaction since mid-August.

Gold-dollar, daily

held firm as the dollar slipped to a two-week low, making the metal more appealing to overseas purchaviewrs while risk-off sentiment across markets kept demand steady for securety plays.

Traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, primarily due to softer U.S. data and easing inflation, which have shifted expectations in that direction. However, the absence of fresh government releases later than the extended shutdown is keeping people cautious, but on the other hand, mixed signals from Fed officials aren’t assisting.

Politics added another wrinkle with President Trump saying that he’s already chosen his pick for the next Fed Chair, but isn’t naming names. That’s reignited chatter around candidates like Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller, any of whom could shift expectations for how aggressive cuts might be next year. Given the backdrop, gold’s momentum is holding up. Investors continue to rely on it as a hedge against turbulence in equities and foreign platform.

From a technical perspective, the price of gold has found sufficient support on the 50-day simple moving average and has resumed its bullish trend since. Currently, it is testing the resistance of the upper band of the Bollinger Bands as well as an inside resistance level since mid-October. The moving averages are validating the overall bullish trend, while the Stochastic oscillator has been pushed to extreme overbought conditions late last week. This could indicate a potential bearish correction in the short term, but given gold’s performance over the past couple of months, I would not rely heavily on this. For the time being, there are no major signs of a significant correction, so the most probable scenario in the upcoming sessions appears to be rather bullish. If this becomes reality, the first potential area of resistance may be found around the latest all-time high of approximately $4,350.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of or Finance Feeds.