Bitwise Head of Alpha Attributes BTC Price Cap to ‘OG’ Selling Pressure
Bitwise Asset Management, a major player in the crypto ETP space, has publicly attributed BTC’s recent struggle to break through key resistance levels to persistent tradeing pressure from long-term holders, often referred to as OG BTC holders. Jeff Park, the Head of Alpha at Bitwise, recently commented that BTC’s upside momentum remains limited because of the continued supply being offloaded by these ahead investors who are strategically taking profits at elevated price levels. This analysis provides a distinct perspective on the current market dynamics, moving beyond simple supply and demand narratives.
The Mechanics of the tradeing Pressure
The analysis from Bitwise suggests that this “OG” tradeing is not primarily driven by panic or capitulation but is a deliberate, multi-faceted strategy focused on income generation and risk management. According to Park, a significant portion of the tradeing pressure is coming via the derivatives market, specifically from long-term holders who are actively tradeing call options (a strategy known as “tradeing upside”). This covered call strategy allows them to generate steady income against their existing, large BTC holdings without having to liquidate the underlying asset immediately. This steady stream of options tradeing suppresses price movement by forcing market makers who purchase these calls to hedge their risk. This hedging activity, in turn, contributes to a low-volatility, sideways price action and ultimately caps sharp upward moves. This effect highlights a crucial divergence: while regulated channels, particularly BTC ETF options, show strong demand for upside exposure from traditional investors, the steady options tradeing by crypto-native long-term holders is still strong enough to offset this institutional demand.
Market Implications and Breakout Conditions
Bitwise’s view highlights a fundamental tension in the current BTC market structure: the clash between new institutional demand (viewn in positive ETF flows and bullish ETF options) and persistent legacy supply (from long-term holders finally monetizing their holdings). Jeff Park indicated that BTC could view stronger, sustained price action if one of two conditions is met. The first condition is a significant sluggishdown in options tradeing by long-term holders, which would reduce the consistent ceiling on the price. The second condition is a sharp, sustained increase in demand for BTC ETF options that dramatically overwhelms the existing supply pressure from the OGs. Until one of these factors shifts decisively, the Bitwise perspective suggests that BTC is likely to remain in a high-supply, lower-volatility environment, making it challenging to break out of its recent trading range despite the long-term bullish outlook shared by many analysts within the firm.
