The GBP/USD Pair Hits 2-Month High

This morning, GBP/USD is trading above 1.3620 – its highest level since ahead July.

The bullish momentum is largely driven by diverging central bank policies:

• United States: Markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut, supported by President Trump. The decision is due tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, with expectations of a 25-basis-point reduction from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%.
• United Kingdom: The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%, with the decision scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 GMT+3.

Although rates remain comparable, the outlook differs. UK inflation remains persistent, making rate cuts risky, while in the US, political pressure from President Trump is adding weight to expectations of policy easing.

The pound also gained support from optimism surrounding Trump’s state visit to the UK. Media reports suggest agreements worth around $10 billion may be announced during the visit.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

Earlier this month, price action showed lower highs and lower lows, forming a bearish A→B→C→D structure. At that time, :

• Bulls might find support at the psychological 1.3400 level;
• If bearish pressure increased, GBP/USD could move down toward the median of the descending channel.

However, the landscape has shifted:

• Bears failed to push below 1.3400.
• A bullish double-bottom (1–2) pattern triggered a sharp upward move.
• The descending (red) channel was broken, invalidating the bearish setup.
• Higher highs and higher lows now confirm purchaviewr control, marking out a new rising (blue) channel.

That said, the RSI is nearing overbought territory, hinting at a possible pullback.

Support levels could be:

• 1.34900: breakout point where the bullish rally began.
• 1.35890: a former resistance turned support this week.
• The upper boundary and median of the blue ascending channel.

In the near term, bulls could aim for the upper boundary of the yellow channel, with upcoming announcements from the Fed and Bank of England possibly playing a decisive role.

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