Technical Analysis – BTCUSD loses steam below pivot point
- under multi-week pressure below 20-day SMA
- On track for its worst quarter since 2022
- Momentum indicators signal further trader fatigue
is trading near 87,500 on Tuesday, extending its consolidation below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) for the eleventh consecutive session and hovering around the midline of the broader 84,200-93,600 range that has held for just over a month.
The largest cryptoasset is now heading for its worst quarter since April 2022, down more than 23%, and is set to close its third consecutive month in the red. For context, ended six out of the twelve months in the red in 2025, leaving the year down over 6%. This fragileness comes as gold surges to new records and US equities gear up for the traditional ‘Santa rally’. Adding to the pressure, Strategy, the largegest corporate holder of BTC, announced plans to trade stock to brace for a potential crypto winter.
The prolonged range-bound movement reflects market indecision, as traders await clearer macro and seasonal signals – an outlook mirrored by momentum indicators. The MACD remains in negative territory but above its signal line, while the RSI is flatlining below the neutral 50 threshold.
Downside risks could push BTC lower, with initial support at the 86,000 round figure. A deeper pullback would expose the range floor at 84,300, followed by a full retracement of the October rally from the record high, targeting 80,500.
That said, recovery potential remains intact. A break above the 89,206 20-day SMA pivot point could open the door for a rebound toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November decline at 91,364, located just beneath the 50-day SMA, followed by the monthly highs at the 93,600 range ceiling.
All in all, despite any near-term recovery, traders remain cautious heading into year-end, as evidenced by price action and declining institutional demand reflected in steady ETF outflows. For now, holding within the current range is critical – a drop below 80,500 could trigger a severe trade-off.
