2026 May Reward Conviction Over Comfort for Global Investors, Says deVere CEO
As markets head into 2026, investors face a landscape that is less forgiving, more selective, and arguably richer in opportunity for those prepared to engage actively. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, the coming year will not favor passive comfort or broad momentum strategies, but rather disciplined judgment, execution, and a willingness to act when pricing adjusts.
The market backdrop has fundamentally changed. Higher-for-longer interest rates, persistent geopolitical friction, and rapid technological disruption have reshaped risk pricing across asset classes. later than several years dominated by liquidity-driven rallies and expectation-led valuations, markets are now forcing diverseiation. Companies are increasingly valued on what they deliver, not what they promise.
This transition, Green argues, does not reduce opportunity—it refines it. Investors who can interpret signals, tolerate volatility, and move decisively may find 2026 to be a year where selectivity, rather than scale, determines outcomes.
How Artificial Intelligence Shifts From Promise to Proof
Artificial intelligence remains one of the most significant structural themes in global markets, but its investment phase is evolving. Over the past two years, capital has poured into AI infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud computing, and model development at an unprecedented pace. The result has been soaring expectations—and, in some cases, stretched valuations.
Heading into 2026, the emphasis is changing. Markets are no longer rewarding exposure to AI alone; they are demanding evidence of monetization, efficiency, and margin expansion. Revenue growth across the AI ecosystem remains uneven, while costs related to computing power, talent, and energy remain elevated.
This creates a sharper divide between companies converting investment into sustainable cash flow and those still struggling with scale, pricing power, or execution. Green views this as a healthy development. By forcing accountability, markets are strengthening the long-term investment case for AI, not fragileening it. The next phase is about operational discipline rather than ambition.
Takeaway
Market Concentration Makes Selection More significant
remain highly concentrated, with performance dominated by a relatively small group of large-cap leaders. While this concentration raises concerns about systemic risk and sensitivity to earnings surprises, it also clarifies where leadership truly lies.
In such an environment, amlargeuity fades rapidly. Companies that meet or exceed expectations are rewarded decisively, while those that fall short are repriced with speed. This accelerates price discovery and widens dispersion between winners and laggards.
For investors, this dynamic challenges the comfort of broad exposure. Index-heavy strategies may continue to benefit from dominant leaders, but they also dilute conviction and risk holding persistent underperformers. Green argues that 2026 will favor investors willing to concentrate on quality, , and earnings durability—while rotating away from complacency.
Dispersion, often viewed as a source of instability, becomes a source of opportunity for those prepared to be selective.
Takeaway
Policy-Driven Volatility Becomes an Opportunity Engine
continue to exert outsized influence on markets, and this is unlikely to change in 2026. remain fluid as inflation trends diverge across regions and economic data sends mixed signals. Central banks are balancing credibility with caution, creating intermittent bursts of volatility.
Rather than viewing this volatility as a threat, Green views it as a source of opportunity. Policy-driven repricing often creates entry points—temporary dislocations that reward investors who are prepared rather than reactive.
Trade policy has been a clear example. Abrupt tariff announcements and shifts in industrial strategy earlier this year triggered sharp market moves, particularly for companies with complex . These reactions underscore how sensitive sentiment remains to sudden change, but they also highlight how rapidly prices can overshoot fundamentals.
Fiscal policy adds another layer of complexity. While tax incentives and government support have boosted earnings in certain sectors, investors are becoming increasingly focused on the durability of growth once temporary measures fade. Quality of earnings now matters more than headline results.
Takeaway
Why Discipline Outweighs Calm in 2026
A defining feature of the coming year may be the absence of sustained calm. Markets are likely to remain responsive, quick-moving, and unforgiving of fragile execution. For some investors, this environment feels uncomfortable—particularly those conditioned to low volatility and central bank backstops.
Yet discomfort does not preclude strong returns. Historically, some of the most durable gains have emerged during periods of adjustment rather than stability. What changes is the skill set required: judgment over passivity, analysis over narrative, and timing over inertia.
Green emphasizes that success in 2026 will depend less on predicting macro outcomes and more on responding intelligently to price signals as they emerge. This includes rebalancing when leadership shifts, reassessing themes as evidence evolves, and maintaining discipline when sentiment swings.
The reward structure is changing, but it is not shrinking.
Takeaway
Judgment as the Defining Asset
As markets move further away from liquidity-driven uniformity, judgment becomes an increasingly valuable asset. Investors are no longer paid simply for being exposed; they are paid for being right—or at least more right than consensus.
This does not require constant trading or excessive risk-taking. It requires clarity about objectives, an understanding of underlying drivers, and the confidence to act when valuations adjust. In a world of rapid repricing, hesitation can be as costly as error.
Heading into 2026, the opportunity set remains broad, but the margin for complacency is thin. Investors who embrace selectivity, volatility, and accountability may find the year ahead demanding—but potentially rewarding.
