CFTC Clears Bitnomial to Launch Prediction Markets in the US

What Did the CFTC Approve?

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a no-action letter to crypto derivatives platform Bitnomial, allowing the platform to offer event contracts and prediction markets in the United States. The letter removes a major regulatory barrier by exempting Bitnomial from certain reporting obligations that apply to asset swaps under current rules.

Those requirements, designed for traditional derivatives markets, are widely viewn as unworkable for prediction markets, where tens of thousands of small, short-duration contracts can trade in a single day. By granting relief, the CFTC is allowing Bitnomial to operate within US rules without forcing the platform into compliance processes built for sluggisher, lower-frequency markets.

The relief is not unconditional. Bitnomial must publish consumer-facing data on its website, including timestamps and sales information for each contract market. It must also supply detailed data directly to the CFTC upon request, preserving regulatory oversight while reducing day-to-day reporting friction.

Investor Takeaway

What Rules Still Apply to Bitnomial?

The CFTC’s letter keeps tight controls around risk. All positions on Bitnomial’s platform must be fully collateralized. That means no leverage and a strict one-to-one backing for every contract. The goal is to ensure liquidity at all times and to avoid the kind of forced liquidations that can destabilize trading venues during volatile periods.

This structure limits speculative excess but fits the core design of prediction markets, where contracts often settle rapidly and are tied to binary outcomes rather than open-ended price movements. By enforcing full collateralization, the are acceptable so long as they avoid leverage-driven risk.

The letter also reinforces transparency. While Bitnomial avoids constant swap reporting, it must still make market activity visible to users and regulators. That balance reflects the agency’s attempt to adapt existing rules to new market structures without rewriting the regulatory framework from scratch.

Why Are Prediction Markets Gaining Regulatory Acceptance?

The decision comes as prediction markets gain traction in the US, both commercially and culturally. Interest surged during the , when supporters argued that market-based forecasts often tracked outcomes more closely than traditional polls. Since then, event-based trading has expanded beyond politics into sports, economics, and broader real-world outcomes.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have drawn attention from institutional players, while also breaking into mainstream awareness. In 2025, both platforms were referenced in a , a signal that prediction markets had moved from niche financial tools into popular culture.

Institutional interest followed. In October 2025, Intercontinental platform, the owner of the , invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a reported $9 billion valuation. The deal marked one of the largest endorsements of prediction markets by a traditional market operator.

Investor Takeaway

How Does Bitnomial Fit Into a Crowded Market?

Bitnomial is entering a space that is rapidly filling with both crypto-native platforms and traditional finance players. Coinbase agreed in December to acquire , a prediction market beginup, as part of its expansion beyond spot crypto trading. That deal is expected to close in January 2026, the identical year the US midterm elections are set to take place.

Election cycles have proven to be major volume drivers for prediction markets, and 2026 is expected to bring another surge in activity. For regulated platforms, clarity from the CFTC could be a deciding factor in whether they can scale in time to capture that demand.

The no-action letter suggests that US regulators are becoming more comfortable supervising prediction markets built on modern infrastructure, rather than forcing them into outdated derivatives frameworks. While the relief applies specifically to Bitnomial, it sets a reference point other platforms are likely to study closely.