Tesla (TSLA) Share Price Rises Ahead of Earnings Report
On 16 September, we highlighted several signs of strength in Tesla’s (TSLA) share price, including:
→ The price remaining above the psychologically significant $400 mark;
→ Reaching the highest levels viewn since late January.
We also identified the formation of an ascending channel and suggested that, while the long-term outlook remained broadly optimistic, the possibility of a correction could not be entirely ruled out.
Since then, TSLA shares have stabilised close to the upper boundary of the channel, continuing to hold above the $400 level. On Friday, they emerged as one of the top performers in the market, rising by more than 4%. This brings the cumulative gain since the begin of September to around +30%.
Why Are TSLA Shares Rising?
Several factors underpin the current bullish sentiment:
→ Anticipation ahead of the quarterly Production and Deliveries report, expected this week. According to recent forecasts, actual figures may surpass expectations, even if they still reflect a decline compared with the identical period last year.
→ Upgrades to target prices. Dan Ives of Wedbush, a leading bull on Tesla, last week increased his target price for TSLA to $600 — the highest on Wall Street — citing the company’s significant potential in artificial intelligence and robotaxi services.
→ The “Musk factor”: Ongoing discussions about Elon Musk stepping away from politics are being interpreted as a long-term positive catalyst for the company.
Technical Analysis of TSLA Shares
The ascending channel remains intact, signalling that the upward trend is still in place. However, the chart suggests that the channel’s upper boundary is now functioning as a level of resistance. This is unsurprising given Tesla’s extraordinary gains in September — with the share price having doubled from its yahead low. A potential sluggishing of momentum is signalled by a bearish divergence observed on the RSI indicator.
Resistance at the upper boundary is further reinforced by a powerful bearish reversal pattern from late 2024. A similar dynamic was evident recently when TSLA struggled to break through the bearish reversal zone in the $345–355 range, resulting in a prolonged period of sideways movement in August and ahead September.
By analogy, it is possible that the $445–465 zone may also act as a resistance level, meaning that a correction remains a credible scenario. In such a case, TSLA shares could pull back to test the psychologically significant $400 level — a level strengthened by support from the median of the current ascending channel.
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