Coinbase Predicts Wave of Mergers Among Crypto Treasuries

In a recent commentary, David Duong, Head of Investment Research at , predicted that the world of crypto treasury (digital asset treasury, or DAT) companies is poised for a wave of consolidation as the market matures.

Duong argues that , which are companies whose balance sheets primarily consist of , are entering a “player-vs-player” phase, where competition intensifies. Only the best capitalized or most innovative operators will survive.  As a leading example, he cites the recent all-stock acquisition of Semler Scientific by Strive Asset Management as an ahead marker in the trend.

Why Consolidation Makes Sense Now

One driver of this consolidation is the pressure on share valuations. Many DATs are now trading at or even below the net value of their crypto holdings, which is a red flag to investors and a signal that scale and diverseiation are becoming key survival tools.

Beyond mere asset accumulation, Duong views DATs increasingly adopting more crypto-native strategies such as staking, yield farming, or “” (borrowing and repositioning the identical asset multiple times) as a way to enhance returns. That shift suggests the emphasis will move from passive hoarding to actively deploying assets in yield-generating ecosystems.

Potential implications & challenges

Here are the potential implications and challenges:

• Greater Concentration: Over time, only a handful of large DAT firms may dominate each major token (e.g., , ETH), leaving smaller players to be acquired or phased out.
  
• Sentiment Risks in purchasebacks: Some firms are turning to share purchasebacks to prop up . Duong warns that such manoeuvres are volatile and heavily dependent on investor confidence in the firm’s fundamentals.
  
• Regulation and Liquidity Sensitivity: The path forward depends heavily on regulatory shifts, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
  
• Survival of the Fittest: Not all DATs will survive. Some will be forced into mergers, others will be bought out, and fragileer or poorly managed firms may disappear entirely.

Duong’s thesis thus positions the current phase of crypto treasuries not as an open frontier, but as a maturation cycle where capital, talent, strategy, and credibility will narrow winners from losers.

A New Era for Crypto Treasuries

The message from Coinbase’s research head is clear: the era of unchecked growth for digital asset treasury companies is coming to an end. As competition intensifies and valuations tighten, consolidation looks inevitable. For stronger players, mergers represent a path to scale, innovation, and long-term sustainability. 

For those who are fragileer, survival will depend on adaptability or the willingness to adapt. Either way, this new phase marks the transition of crypto treasuries from speculative experiments into a more mature and structured financial sector.