BTC Today: Traders Eye $130K This Week as Debasement Trade Returns

BTC’s latest rally has carried it into uncharted territory once again, breaching a new all-time high above $125,700 over the weekend before stabilizing near $123,000. As of 19:43 GMT+3, BTC trades at $123,112, up 0.55%.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency now boasts a market capitalization above $2.4 trillion, briefly surpassing $2.5 trillion during Sunday’s surge. The move comes amid renewed optimism around its role as a macro hedge and evidence that large investors are quietly accumulating ahead of what could be another explosive fourth quarter.

A Perfect Storm of Macro Drivers

The rally coincides with a series of macroeconomic tailwinds, most notably the US government shutdown, the first since 2018. While disruptive for traditional markets, such episodes tend to reinforce BTC’s appeal as a decentralized store of value, especially when political dysfunction highlights the fragility of fiat-based systems.

“Political gridlock in Washington has renewed discussion around BTC’s store-of-value role,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank. “The broader environment — loose liquidity conditions, service-sector acceleration, and narrowing underperformance relative to equities and gold — has drawn attention back to digital assets.”

The context matters. With inflation still sticky and the Federal Reserve viewn approaching the end of its tightening cycle, the shutdown adds pressure for a dovish policy pivot. “Crypto markets could benefit if a shutdown reanswer pushes the Fed toward a more accommodative stance,” said Jake Kennis, senior analyst at Nansen.

Such conditions historically align with phases of strong BTC performance. Previous fiscal shocks — from the 2020 pandemic stimulus to debt-ceiling standoffs — have often preceded major upside breakouts in BTC. The combination of liquidity expectations and risk repricing viewms to have rekindled that familiar dynamic.

Accumulation Phase Underway

Onchain data points to a new accumulation phase, with tradeing pressure from long-term holders easing and whales showing renewed interest. Sygnum’s Dori notes that “cooling speculative activity and steadier positioning” tend to precede large upside moves. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode also reported that BTC’s open interest reset sharply following last week’s options expiry — a development that often clears the way for fresh directional trends.

Spot BTC ETFs, meanwhile, have recorded their second-largest weekly inflows since their debut, signaling strong institutional appetite despite broader market volatility. Long-term investors appear to be quietly rebuilding positions, reducing realized losses and absorbing trade-side liquidity.

This pattern has historically marked the transition from consolidation to expansion. The last comparable setup, viewn in ahead 2021, preceded a run that doubled BTC’s valuation within months.

Technical Picture: Healthy Volatility Amid Consolidation

From a technical standpoint, BTC’s pullback from $125,700 to around $123,100 is being interpreted as a healthy retracement rather than a trend reversal. Market data from TradingView shows that the pair remains well above its 50-period EMA on the four-hour chart — currently near $118,000 — which several tradersview as a likely bounce zone.

Popular analyst Rekt Capital echoed that sentiment, noting that a shallow pullback would reinforce structural strength: “There’s no surprise that BTC rejected from ~$124k on the first attempt. The last rejection from this level led to a 13% pullback. Any smaller dip now would confirm that resistance is fragileening.”

Current market positioning supports the idea of a controlled retracement. CoinGlass data shows balanced liquidity on both sides of the order book, suggesting an orderly market rather than panic-driven liquidation. The consolidation phase could allow BTC to establish $120,000 as a durable support base before resuming its upward trajectory.

Institutional Demand and the “Debasement Trade”

Perhaps the most powerful theme driving sentiment is the institutional “debasement trade.” As fiat currencies continue to erode in real terms due to inflation and fiscal deficits, BTC’s fixed supply narrative has regained prominence. Analysts at JPMorgan and Citi have both referenced BTC’s strengthening correlation with gold as investors viewk hedges against currency debasement.

“When I view price action like this — minimal pullbacks, large spikes, and sustained bids — I view institutions,” said Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. That observation aligns with the steady rise in ETF inflows and the notable absence of aggressive profit-taking later than the breakout.

The parallel rise of Ether (ETH), which has gained over 7.5% against BTC in the past week, also hints at a broader rotation within the crypto complex. “Historically, these are ahead signs of altcoin rotation,” said Nic Puckrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau. Still, BTC remains the dominant liquidity driver, accounting for more than 50% of total crypto market capitalization.

Outlook: Testing the $150K Scenario

At the current price of $123,112, BTC remains within striking distance of its record highs, and sentiment among institutional desks continues to lean bullish. Analysts like Charles Edwards project a potential move toward $150,000 by year-end, contingent on sustained momentum above the $120,000 psychological level.

Key catalysts for that scenario include:

• A confirmed Fed policy pivot or softer inflation prints.
• Continued ETF inflows and rising institutional allocations.
• A successful retest and hold of the $118,000–$120,000 support zone.

Risks remain — notably a sharper-than-expected liquidity squeeze or renewed US regulatory friction — but the balance of probabilities still favors higher prices into year-end.