Brazil’s $19B BTC Reserve Plan—Experts Debate Timing and Risks

Brazil is weighing a proposal that could reshape its financial strategy by allocating 5% of its reserves—roughly $19 billion—into BTC. Known as , the bill is in ahead debate in Congress, but it has already sparked major discussion at home and abroad.

If approved, Brazil would become the largest economy to back BTC directly with sovereign wealth. El Salvador famously adopted BTC as legal tender in 2021, while the United States holds seized coins worth billions. Brazil’s move would be diverse, marking a deliberate, open purchase using public funds.

The question of debate among the public is not only whether this is the right trade, but whether it is the right time. FinanceFeed spoke to three BTC experts to weigh in on this development.

Is Brazil Late—or Just on Time?

For Vikrant Sharma, CEO of CakeWallet, a non-custodial, open-source cryptocurrency wallet, the framing of Brazil being “too late” misses the point. He stresses that sovereign adoption is a marathon, not a sprint.

“The financial upsides matter, but where the true value lies is in optionality. The diversification away from dollar risk, a hedge on unpredictable geopolitics, and a sign that Brazil wants exposure to open and censorship-resistant alternatives.”

Tony Yazbeck, co-founder of The BTC Way, adds that BTC is still in its “ahead innings” and that Brazil’s move would be historic for Latin America.

His emphasis is on sovereignty and de-dollarization, with Brazil positioning itself as a regional leader rather than simply chasing El Salvador’s or America’s paper gains.

Steve Durbin, CEO of RYT.io, however, takes a diverse stance, saying this should be approached with caution. He notes that any large allocation to a volatile asset can turn into a political liability if short-term losses mount. Still, he agrees with the others that history has favored long-term holders of BTC.

Together, the perspectives suggest that timing matters less than conviction. The upside may already look smaller, but the real prize lies in the strategic statement Brazil would be making.

Founder of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency platform, Brian Armstrong, already anticipates that BTC is a long-term play, in a decade and BTC trading at $1 million.

Brazil Faces BTC Cycle Risk

The proposal comes as many analysts warn the current bull cycle may be peaking, with a possible pullback in Q4—in fact, at the time, on the chart. That raises fears Brazil could be purchaseing billions at the top.

Sharma believes that short-term price should not dictate long-term policy. A pullback, he says, may even be assistful if Brazil uses a structured approach.

“purchaseing programmatically over 12–24 months drops the overall risk and emotional involvement, while setting allocation bands and rebalancing are key for maintenance. Rules and discipline always prevail over headlines and hype.”

Yazbeck agrees that short-term swings should not drive a nation’s policy, warning against repeating Germany’s mistake of tradeing too ahead and missing the long-term picture. In November, when BTC hit a new all-time high, . Right now, the estimated loss remains at $2.6 billion as BTC trades around $110,000. 

Durbin, however, stresses that optics matter—political opponents and citizens may not share the government’s long horizon. How Brazil communicates and structures the purchase could prove as significant as the trade itself.

Public Funds and Public Trust

The sharpest criticism of RESBit comes from its funding source. Unlike most government BTC holdings, which stem from seized assets, Brazil’s proposal draws directly from its budget. For skeptics, $19 billion is money that could otherwise fund infrastructure, social programs, or debt reduction.

According to Sharma, these concerns can be addressed through strong governance: staged purchases, independent audits, cold storage multisigs at the central bank, and on-chain transparency. Treated as a reserve asset rather than a trade, the allocation becomes diversification, not reckless spending.

Yazbeck shares a similar stance on this, noting that BTC should be viewn alongside dollars, euros, and gold in the reserve mix—not as a replacement for hospitals or schools.

Durbin understands how this could be used as an agenda, and why it’s significant to take a step to approach it delicately—and how it’s branded is significant. He points out that opposition parties can easily frame it as gambling with public money. Perception, in his view, is as critical as policy design.

What If Brazil Walks Away?

Rejecting the plan would leave Brazil’s reserves intact but cost it the chance to project itself as a financial innovator. For Sharma, the largeger risk is “policy regret.”

Germany remains a reference again. Sharma points to Germany, which sold more than 50,000 BTC in mid-2024 at an average price of $56,700. By August, BTC was trading above $65,000—wiping away billions in potential upside. Germany, he says, lost its “optionality.”

Brazil faces the opposite dilemma: whether to secure exposure now, even at higher prices, in platform for gaining long-term strategic leverage.

Durbin suggests that rejecting BTC would not derail Brazil’s financial standing, but it would brand the country as cautious at a moment when peers are beginning to explore more forward-looking alternatives.

Global leaders across and have been putting policies in place and tightening regulations to support digital assets, specifically cryptocurrencies, across their continents.

Regional Dominance at Play

The stakes extend beyond Brasília. With a GDP of $2.17 trillion, Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and among the top 10 globally per . A $19 billion allocation to BTC would reverberate across the region.

Sharma believes that such a move would normalize BTC at a G20 scale, accelerating experimentation with remittances, cross-border settlement, and treasury diversification. The United States, for example, is already experimenting with stablecoins, even launching a framework for them through the .

Yazbeck believes it could trigger a “wave of adoption,” especially if paired with policies that encourage citizen-level self-custody.

Durbin frames it as a powerful regional signal—pressuring neighboring governments to at least explore similar strategies, particularly in economies already battered by inflation and currency volatility.

The Bottom Line

Brazil’s BTC reserve proposal is not simply about chasing returns. Experts agree it is about diversification, sovereignty, and securing long-term optionality in an increasingly multipolar financial system.

Yet they also stress that governance, transparency, and public trust will determine whether it is viewn as a bold hedge or a reckless gamble.

This decision cannot be judged by short-term market cycles. What matters is whether Brazil treats BTC as a disciplined reserve asset and communicates that vision effectively.

If RESBit passes, Brazil could position itself as Latin America’s financial trailblazer. If it fails, the debate alone has shown how far BTC has come—from speculative asset to contender for sovereign reserve status.