Polymarket Readies November Rollout in U.S. later than $10B Valuation Talk
Prediction Platform Eyes November Launch
Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform, is preparing to reopen trading for U.S. users later than securing regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to Bloomberg. The company expects to roll out limited trading options focused on sports betting before the end of November, people familiar with the plan said.
The return would mark the first time in more than two years that U.S. users can legally access Polymarket’s markets. The CFTC previously fined the company $1.4 million in 2022 for offering unregistered event-based contracts. Since then, Polymarket has operated outside the U.S. while working to to return.
The CFTC’s no-action letter, issued in August to a derivatives platform and clearinghouse acquired by Polymarket, effectively opened the door for a U.S. comeback. Chief executive Shayne Coplan said at the time that the decision allowed Polymarket to “go live in the USA.”
Investor Takeaway
Valuation and Market Prospects
Reports from September indicated that Polymarket could reach a valuation of up to $10 billion later than reopening to U.S. users. The company was last valued at roughly $1 billion in June following a $200 million funding round backed by venture investors. A domestic relaunch would likely boost its user base and trading volumes, positioning it alongside platforms such as Kalshi and reality Social’s upcoming prediction venture.
As of Tuesday, Polymarket’s website featured a waitlist with the message “soon available for U.S. traders,” suggesting the company is finalizing preparations for a staged rollout. The initial focus on sports markets reflects an effort to stay clear of the political contracts that drew in the past.
Competition Heats Up in Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s reentry comes amid a renewed push by other firms to tap demand for real-money forecasting. Kalshi, another U.S.-based predictions platform, recently won a legal battle against the CFTC later than the regulator attempted to block political event contracts. That decision, analysts say, set an significant precedent for how prediction markets can operate under U.S. law.
Meanwhile, Trump Media and Technology Group—the company behind the reality Social app—announced plans on Tuesday to introduce its own prediction markets in partnership with Crypto.com. The initiative would let users trade contracts tied to current events, putting reality Social in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.
The convergence of major players signals growing mainstream acceptance of event-based markets. Still, analysts warn that the sector’s growth will depend on consistent CFTC oversight and the ability of platforms to separate prediction contracts from gambling products under federal law.
Investor Takeaway
Regulatory and Market Outlook
The CFTC’s no-action letter marks a shift in tone from earlier enforcement-heavy approaches toward prediction markets. Industry lawyers say the decision indicates the regulator may be more open to sandbox-style experimentation under controlled conditions. For Polymarket, compliance will remain crucial, as any violation could trigger renewed sanctions.
Still, the timing may work in its favor. The approach of the 2024 U.S. election cycle and a broader rise in tokenized derivatives have fueled renewed investor interest in event-based markets. If Polymarket executes its November rollout successfully, it could pave the way for a wider reopening of regulated crypto-based forecasting tools in the United States.
